Oscar Health's drop below $30 makes little sense after it crushed Q2, swung to a profit and raised full-year operating earnings guidance. Revenue was $4.90B versus $4.75B expected and EPS $1.10 versus $0.39, with FY26 revenue guided to $18.9B versus $18.6B estimated. The market needs time to digest the result, and the stock should recover soon; it remains a long-term hold. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oscar Health's ACA expansion offers a huge growth opportunity if it controls medical costs. It is entering six South Carolina counties in 2027; management targets another 400-600 counties by 2029. Q2 MLR fell to 79.2% from 91.1%, SG&A to 14.2% from 18.7%, and operating income rose from a $230M loss to a $389M profit. Favorable reserve development helped, so those results may not be the new normal. If underlying economics keep improving, Oscar could look very different in a few years. x.com  x.com 

Oscar Health cannot be a great business because insurance, like banking, is uninvestable when its economics are nearly impossible to predict. One bad cycle or change in costs can wipe out margins that are already nonexistent. A post the author replies to argues Oscar avoided the 30-40% member drop the market expected after enhanced premium tax credits expired. x.com 

Oscar Health's guidance raise shows improving operating leverage, the key test of whether its ACA growth can become durable profit. It lifted 2026 earnings from operations guidance to $600M-$800M from $500M-$700M while leaving revenue guidance unchanged at $18.7B-$19.0B, and improved medical loss ratio guidance by 50 bps to 81.0%-82.0%. The implied operating margin rises from about 3.2% to 3.7% without more revenue. ACA risk adjustment and medical-cost trends still need watching. x.com  x.com 

Oscar Health has turned the corner and is on the verge of a dramatic profitability inflection, yet trades at under 15x free cash flow. It projects $800 million in earnings from operations, a 1,000-basis-point improvement in its medical loss ratio and over $350 million of free cash flow this year, with more than $4.5 billion of net cash. The stock is headed to $30 by the end of 2026, after a painful year in which the call did not deliver. x.com 

Oscar Health is too hard to invest in given the state of the ACA, uncertainty over how much ICHRA can add and uncertain risk-adjustment liabilities. A full-year medical loss ratio below 80% would force rebates, though Oscar can still cut its expense ratio. Democrats winning at least partially in the midterms could bring more favorable terms for Oscar later. x.com 

Oscar Health's profitability inflection confirms its tech-first model produces structurally lower medical loss ratios than legacy insurers. Revenue missed by $260M, but EPS of $2.07 nearly doubled the $1.06 estimate, adjusted EBITDA was $727M and guidance was reaffirmed. Its 70.5% MLR on 3.17 million members compares with UnitedHealth in the high 70s and Humana above 90%. The miss reflects mix, with fewer members earning more profit each. It is the only tech-native insurer profitable at scale. … Show more

Oscar Health is set for a strong second half of 2026 and 2027 after management raised guidance by a massive amount and brought down its medical loss ratio, improving margins. On a $12 billion revenue guide, 2% margins at 25x earnings imply a $6 billion-plus market cap, and 5% margins in 2027 would mean $15 billion-plus, over 120% higher. An ACA subsidy extension looks unlikely but would be an unpriced tailwind. x.com 

Oscar Health looks too extended after its big move and should pull back around earnings in the next few days; it is not a tech stock with a niche product capable of parabolic moves. x.com 

Oscar Health's downside case looks too aggressively priced after it held support through the March-April capitulation and rebounded sharply. A strong Q1 brought higher revenue, a better medical loss ratio, significant adjusted EBITDA and reaffirmed 2026 guidance, and its tech-enabled ACA platform could deliver meaningful operating leverage. A sustained close above about $20, a multi-year ceiling, would open a path toward its IPO highs. ACA subsidy and eligibility changes remain a real risk. … Show more