Oscar Health is set for a strong second half of 2026 and 2027 after management raised guidance by a massive amount and brought down its medical loss ratio, improving margins. On a $12 billion revenue guide, 2% margins at 25x earnings imply a $6 billion-plus market cap, and 5% margins in 2027 would mean $15 billion-plus, over 120% higher. An ACA subsidy extension looks unlikely but would be an unpriced tailwind. x.com 

Oscar Health's guidance raise shows improving operating leverage, the key test of whether its ACA growth can become durable profit. It lifted 2026 earnings from operations guidance to $600M-$800M from $500M-$700M while leaving revenue guidance unchanged at $18.7B-$19.0B, and improved medical loss ratio guidance by 50 bps to 81.0%-82.0%. The implied operating margin rises from about 3.2% to 3.7% without more revenue. ACA risk adjustment and medical-cost trends still need watching. x.com  x.com 

Oscar Health is too hard to invest in given the state of the ACA, uncertainty over how much ICHRA can add and uncertain risk-adjustment liabilities. A full-year medical loss ratio below 80% would force rebates, though Oscar can still cut its expense ratio. Democrats winning at least partially in the midterms could bring more favorable terms for Oscar later. x.com 

Oscar Health's scale is finally producing real operating leverage as its medical loss ratio improves, undercutting the view that it is uninvestable. Q1 revenue rose 53% to $4.65 billion, operating earnings 137% to $704 million, net income 147% to $679 million and basic EPS 107% to $2.28. x.com 

Oscar Health's downside case looks too aggressively priced after it held support through the March-April capitulation and rebounded sharply. A strong Q1 brought higher revenue, a better medical loss ratio, significant adjusted EBITDA and reaffirmed 2026 guidance, and its tech-enabled ACA platform could deliver meaningful operating leverage. A sustained close above about $20, a multi-year ceiling, would open a path toward its IPO highs. ACA subsidy and eligibility changes remain a real risk. … Show more

Oscar Health is essentially a leveraged bet on Affordable Care Act subsidies surviving, and the enhanced premium tax credits are sunsetting. A full lapse would mean roughly a 114% spike in subsidized premiums and enrollment cratering into 2027. Q2 was a monster print, with EPS of $1.10 versus $0.39 expected, but the real test comes next year. x.com 

Oscar Health is shifting from story stock to genuine profitability as membership growth drives operating leverage. Its SG&A ratio fell from 15.8% to 15.2%, and CMS cut ACA exchange user fees, easing costs for an insurer reliant on that market. CEO Mark Bertolini bought 1 million shares for $11.92M in April, signaling confidence in a profitability inflection. ICHRA, where employers fund employees' own coverage, is a large untapped market, and its new Lucie shopping platform deepens its moat. … Show more

Oscar Health has the most room to run among health insurers, which are rallying after the administration announced increased Medicaid budgets. CEO Mark Bertolini bought about $12 million of shares at the lows, the first insider purchase this year, and Oscar's market cap is just $3.74B. The chart confirms it: a broken daily descending trendline, surging money flow and a volume spike. Resistance sits at $14.15-$15, and a close above $15 brings the 200-day moving average into play. x.com 

Oscar Health cannot be a great business because insurance, like banking, is uninvestable when its economics are nearly impossible to predict. One bad cycle or change in costs can wipe out margins that are already nonexistent. A post the author replies to argues Oscar avoided the 30-40% member drop the market expected after enhanced premium tax credits expired. x.com 

Oscar Health has turned the corner and is on the verge of a dramatic profitability inflection, yet trades at under 15x free cash flow. It projects $800 million in earnings from operations, a 1,000-basis-point improvement in its medical loss ratio and over $350 million of free cash flow this year, with more than $4.5 billion of net cash. The stock is headed to $30 by the end of 2026, after a painful year in which the call did not deliver. x.com