Oscar Health's ACA expansion offers a huge growth opportunity if it controls medical costs. It is entering six South Carolina counties in 2027; management targets another 400-600 counties by 2029. Q2 MLR fell to 79.2% from 91.1%, SG&A to 14.2% from 18.7%, and operating income rose from a $230M loss to a $389M profit. Favorable reserve development helped, so those results may not be the new normal. If underlying economics keep improving, Oscar could look very different in a few years. x.com  x.com 

Oscar Health's downside case looks too aggressively priced after it held support through the March-April capitulation and rebounded sharply. A strong Q1 brought higher revenue, a better medical loss ratio, significant adjusted EBITDA and reaffirmed 2026 guidance, and its tech-enabled ACA platform could deliver meaningful operating leverage. A sustained close above about $20, a multi-year ceiling, would open a path toward its IPO highs. ACA subsidy and eligibility changes remain a real risk. … Show more

Oscar Health is too hard to invest in given the state of the ACA, uncertainty over how much ICHRA can add and uncertain risk-adjustment liabilities. A full-year medical loss ratio below 80% would force rebates, though Oscar can still cut its expense ratio. Democrats winning at least partially in the midterms could bring more favorable terms for Oscar later. x.com 

Oscar Health has turned from a cash-burning insurtech into a profitable market-share winner, yet the stock still trades near its post-IPO levels. It serves 3.2 million members, just posted its most profitable quarter ever and is taking share despite ACA regulatory headwinds, so it could compound significantly if execution continues. x.com 

Oscar Health has the most room to run among health insurers, which are rallying after the administration announced increased Medicaid budgets. CEO Mark Bertolini bought about $12 million of shares at the lows, the first insider purchase this year, and Oscar's market cap is just $3.74B. The chart confirms it: a broken daily descending trendline, surging money flow and a volume spike. Resistance sits at $14.15-$15, and a close above $15 brings the 200-day moving average into play. x.com 

Oscar Health is essentially a leveraged bet on Affordable Care Act subsidies surviving, and the enhanced premium tax credits are sunsetting. A full lapse would mean roughly a 114% spike in subsidized premiums and enrollment cratering into 2027. Q2 was a monster print, with EPS of $1.10 versus $0.39 expected, but the real test comes next year. x.com 

Oscar Health's CEO bought $12 million of stock near the lows, an eight-figure insider buy worth paying attention to. Shares are now at 5.5-year highs and close to threatening the all-time high set at the IPO price. x.com 

Oscar Health has already priced in the CMS crackdown while it keeps disrupting medical insurance, with 90% average annual sales growth over the past five years. The stock is not far from testing new highs since its IPO, and the price target is 42+. x.com 

Oscar Health will struggle to climb while Trump keeps attacking insurers in headlines, unless a midterm blue wave or polling pointing to one emerges. Arguments that people will use money to buy Oscar plans matter little under that narrative, and some may skip coverage entirely. Elevance, UnitedHealth and Cigna are the safer way to add insurer exposure here, since employer-sponsored plans are safest, followed by government-sponsored plans, which would gain more from a blue wave. x.com  x.com 

Oscar Health's scale is finally producing real operating leverage as its medical loss ratio improves, undercutting the view that it is uninvestable. Q1 revenue rose 53% to $4.65 billion, operating earnings 137% to $704 million, net income 147% to $679 million and basic EPS 107% to $2.28. x.com