Prof
Macro & Equity Commentary, Risk & Market Psychology
MP Materials is the preferred rare earth name because it is more mature and has held up well technically through ups and downs. It needs to break above $65 to get the desired move. The whole rare earth theme is in a pullback and consolidation phase, but momentum should eventually return, and when these stocks clear their shared resistance lines, it pays to be positioned. x.comÂ
MP Materials has a lot of catching up to do after other rare-earth stocks rallied today, and its COO just bought 17k shares. x.comÂ
Domestic rare-earth and critical-mineral supply chains will make this stock group a generational wealth builder this year. REalloys has Army negotiations and an EXIM letter of interest; USA Rare Earth is developing a mine-to-magnet chain; MP Materials is expanding into magnets; Energy Fuels processes rare earths; and Lithium Americas is advancing Thacker Pass with GM and DOE support. REalloys paid to be included in this list. x.com x.com x.comÂ
MP Materials risks repeating Molycorp's boom-and-bust history, since the deposit has been a financial disaster since its discovery, and this time may not be different. @JonahLupton argues rare earth demand could double or triple, with MP earning $1 billion-plus of EBIT by 2030, and that Molycorp's failure came over a decade ago under different management. x.com x.comÂ
US rare-earth and critical-mineral stocks could benefit from up to $1.6B of US investment in a domestic supply chain, even as heavy rare-earth stocks crash. USA Rare Earth is building a US mine-to-magnet chain including dysprosium and terbium; MP Materials is expanding into heavy rare-earth separation, alloys and magnets; Energy Fuels is expanding US separation; Critical Metals is developing Greenland's Tanbreez; NioCorp and American Resources are building US critical-mineral projects. x.com … Show more
MP Materials' domestic rare-earth magnets must and will succeed as demand from the military, drones, space, robots, EVs and data centers grows tremendously and Chinese magnets are shut out; Trump won't take a single Chinese magnet, even if offered. The weekly chart still holds a flag tracked for almost a year, above the 30-week EMA, with RSI breaking out and MACD and slow stochastics turning up. x.com x.comÂ
USA Rare Earth, Energy Fuels and MP Materials are a pass for now because whale accumulation on their weekly charts is gradually decreasing. They are not a favored setup yet. x.comÂ
MP Materials is a safe bet as the only Western Hemisphere producer of rare earths at scale, an asset the Pentagon cannot afford to lose. A post the author shares argues Greenland's Tanbreez deposit is likely a decade away given no roads, frozen months and a uranium mining ban, while China controls about 90% of processing. Mountain Pass in California is operational today, and since July 2025 the Pentagon has treated MP as a partner rather than a vendor, effectively socializing its risk. x.com … Show more
US government backing and China's roughly 90% control of the global heavy-metals and rare-earth market make USA Rare Earth an easy hold. Its projected 2030 revenue is $2.6 billion, and most stocks in the basket trade at 20-30x sales. It is especially an easy hold near the log 0.786 Fibonacci level, with weekly RSI at 30. x.comÂ
MP Materials and USA Rare Earth are the only viable US rare-earth options while China controls 99% of global supply. Humanoid robots and AI infrastructure require large amounts of rare-earth elements, making the sector a great long-term hold for investors who can stomach volatility. x.comÂ
Rare earths are the one sector that has not yet seen meaningful inflows while money rotates into a new sector every week, and that is unlikely to last much longer. MP Materials, Energy Fuels, Uranium Energy, Centrus Energy and Lithium Americas are the names for that rotation. x.comÂ
