Semiconductors could stay undersupplied for a long time as more capable AI per dollar creates more uses and drives compute demand. Micron and NVIDIA trade at low forward P/Es because investors fear peak cyclical earnings, yet current earnings show no slowdown. Shortages may worsen as AI adoption spreads, though the industry could remain cyclical; a reversal of the forced rollover trade is hoped for, not assured. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Tech and semiconductor bounces are mainly driven by less urgent hedge-fund selling rather than fresh buying. Per Goldman Sachs, tech is still being sold amid very low activity; there is no sign risk has been added yet. The unwind may be nearing its end, especially as hyperscalers stick to capex plans and Q3 semiconductor earnings look likely to be positive. Less crowded positioning and more normal multiples leave a healthier base for a longer-term rebuild. x.com 

Nordic Semiconductor, Ambiq Micro and CEVA look unattractive as edge AI silicon suppliers, with the full argument set out in a new Substack article. x.com 

AI semiconductor stocks are falling because valuations priced in too much growth beyond 2026-27, not because fundamentals are worsening. With the sector ETF up more than 100% year to date at one point, Q2 earnings couldn't meet those expectations, and a crowded trade is deleveraging as everyone races for the same exit. Fundamentals are likely improving, so as positioning and valuation reset the trade can continue, but selectively. x.com 

Strong AI demand and hyperscaler spending make the selloff a mid-cycle correction despite neocloud financing stress. Widening CCC spreads expose leveraged firms to higher borrowing costs; US competition with China supports AI buildout. The base case is a bottom in roughly 5-7 days, then stabilization and eventually a broader reversal, though some projects may fail and valuations compress. IREN, Cipher, Nebius, Applied Digital, Micron, AMD, ASML and Intel are worth gradually accumulating. x.com 

CEVA looks expensive against its sales at $31.27. The chip and software IP licensor trades at 6x sales and 5x next year's, while chipmakers usually get 2x. Fair value sits at $14.63 to $18.63, about 2x next year's sales, putting the stock 68% above the high end of that range. This is a valuation read only, based on reported earnings and revenue estimates. x.com 

ASML's reported inability to make enough machines for the next two years is a buy signal for the whole AI stack. Its stock still sold off despite that shortage. x.com 

As LLMs commoditize, chip programs will multiply, favoring vendors paid per attempt: CEVA, Aehr Test Systems, inTEST, PDF Solutions and GSI Technology. Stable, cost-driven inference makes hardwired custom chips worth building, and every program pays for IP, yield and test, success or not. CEVA earns per-unit IP royalties, Aehr and inTEST scale with SKU count, PDF Solutions owns cross-fab yield data, and GSI is a risky memory-wall option. Ongoing architecture churn would make this early. x.com  … Show more

Broadcom's custom AI chips and networking could drive earnings beyond what its valuation implies over 2-3 years. It is the favorite semiconductor opportunity now, preferred over NVIDIA without replacing it. AI semiconductor revenue is projected at about $58B in FY2026, $115B in FY2027 and potentially $230B in FY2028. At about 17x FY2027 consensus adjusted earnings, risk/reward is compelling if growth materializes; customer commitments add visibility, but delays and financing remain risks. x.com  … Show more

Semiconductor earnings will be good, supporting a likely run into Q3 results. The group looks oversold, and the Anthropic/CoreWeave news is noise. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com