USA Rare Earth is rallying on federal support: the U.S. Department of Energy selected it on May 21 for negotiations on up to $19.3M of pilot rare earth separations funding. The target for the shares is $42. x.com
Dr. Stoxx
Stock Trader & Author, Oxford DPhil, Trading Education
US government backing and China's roughly 90% control of the global heavy-metals and rare-earth market make USA Rare Earth an easy hold. Its projected 2030 revenue is $2.6 billion, and most stocks in the basket trade at 20-30x sales. It is especially an easy hold near the log 0.786 Fibonacci level, with weekly RSI at 30. x.com
USA Rare Earth is worth buying again because the government took a roughly $300 million stake at $17.17 per share. x.com x.com
USA Rare Earth, Energy Fuels and MP Materials are a pass for now because whale accumulation on their weekly charts is gradually decreasing. They are not a favored setup yet. x.com
USA Rare Earth's $1.75B cash is the real story, funding the Texas mining and magnet operations behind the first vertically integrated US rare earth supply chain. China refines 85% of the world's rare earths, and its NdPr magnets go into every humanoid robot actuator; without them the humanoid build stops. The $5.7M Q1 revenue is the wrong frame. If the Texas ramp holds schedule, the stock is on a path to $28-29 next quarter, with a floor around $20 in a pullback. x.com
Domestic rare-earth and critical-mineral supply chains will make this stock group a generational wealth builder this year. REalloys has Army negotiations and an EXIM letter of interest; USA Rare Earth is developing a mine-to-magnet chain; MP Materials is expanding into magnets; Energy Fuels processes rare earths; and Lithium Americas is advancing Thacker Pass with GM and DOE support. REalloys paid to be included in this list. x.com x.com x.com
USA Rare Earth's breakout has fundamental backing because a domestic rare earth supply chain is a White House priority and China export uncertainty keeps a bid under US names. It ended Q1 with $1.75 billion of cash after a $1.5 billion PIPE, commissioned Phase 1a magnet production at Stillwater, won $19.3 million of DOE funding and a $14.18 million Texas grant, and signed the Serra Verde acquisition. Analysts average a $36.57 target, up to $45, though timing is awkward after the recent run. … Show more
USA Rare Earth's setup looks very strong, helped by a letter of intent for US government investment. Past US government investments, as in Intel, have led to really great moves. x.com
USA Rare Earth is attractive again now that it trades below the government's $17.17 entry price. More shares are wanted, but with patience for now. x.com x.com
USA Rare Earth is a higher-risk, high-reward bet on mineral security as a form of national security, suited only to a small portion of a portfolio. x.com
USA Rare Earth could accelerate because a potential 8-16% US government stake would back domestic heavy rare earth and magnet production, essential to fighter jets, missiles, radar and other advanced weapons. China controls 85-90% of that supply chain, making it national-security critical with macro and geopolitical tailwinds. It is still pre-revenue, more a VC-style play: defense contracts are the bull case, and failure to execute is the risk. The upside over the next few years is great. x.com … Show more