Pernas Research
Founder of Pernas Research, Fundamental Equity Research, USAF Background
Ginkgo Bioworks is too speculative to own, even as it shifts from a failed synthetic biology model, with the stock down about 99% from highs, toward robotics and AI-driven dark labs. Multiple expert calls suggest the automation tech is viable and differentiated, and with about $150mm of annual burn it has a few years of runway. At roughly $220mm EV the risk/reward looks favorable but highly non-concrete, because traction is still early. x.com x.comÂ
Ginkgo Bioworks is not investable right now; it is better to wait for execution and de-risking and buy at a higher valuation. AI and robotics are good for biology, and OpenAI partnered with Ginkgo this year. But @JackPrescottX notes Ginkgo has roughly seven quarters of runway and must grow revenue within two years or face heavy dilution or bankruptcy. x.comÂ
AI drug-discovery picks and shovels such as Ginkgo Bioworks, 10x Genomics, Twist Bioscience and Grail are priced on a fantasy, and secondary offerings are coming. The bet that AI will solve cancers and rare diseases within months ignores how drug discovery, regulation and trial enrollment actually work. Unlike the semiconductor comparison, these businesses have not inflected, mostly burn cash, trade at 20-30x sales and need equity to fund themselves. Buyers here become their liquidity. x.com … Show more
Ginkgo Bioworks is a highly speculative bet that its new autonomous AI wet lab concept makes this time different. Serious partnerships with Google, OpenAI and now Eli Lilly, which drove the recent jump, add confirmation and more confidence to hold, and the move may be just getting started. The risk is management's bad history of reverse splits, pivots and dilution. x.com x.com x.comÂ
