Brett Krieger
Retail Investor, Space, AI & Emerging Technology
Ginkgo Bioworks is not investable right now; it is better to wait for execution and de-risking and buy at a higher valuation. AI and robotics are good for biology, and OpenAI partnered with Ginkgo this year. But @JackPrescottX notes Ginkgo has roughly seven quarters of runway and must grow revenue within two years or face heavy dilution or bankruptcy. x.comÂ
Ginkgo Bioworks is too speculative to own, even as it shifts from a failed synthetic biology model, with the stock down about 99% from highs, toward robotics and AI-driven dark labs. Multiple expert calls suggest the automation tech is viable and differentiated, and with about $150mm of annual burn it has a few years of runway. At roughly $220mm EV the risk/reward looks favorable but highly non-concrete, because traction is still early. x.com x.comÂ
AI drug-discovery picks and shovels such as Ginkgo Bioworks, 10x Genomics, Twist Bioscience and Grail are priced on a fantasy, and secondary offerings are coming. The bet that AI will solve cancers and rare diseases within months ignores how drug discovery, regulation and trial enrollment actually work. Unlike the semiconductor comparison, these businesses have not inflected, mostly burn cash, trade at 20-30x sales and need equity to fund themselves. Buyers here become their liquidity. x.com … Show more
Ginkgo Bioworks is a highly speculative bet that its new autonomous AI wet lab concept makes this time different. Serious partnerships with Google, OpenAI and now Eli Lilly, which drove the recent jump, add confirmation and more confidence to hold, and the move may be just getting started. The risk is management's bad history of reverse splits, pivots and dilution. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Twist Bioscience looks more like a bubble than an investment case, even though it could benefit as AI multiplies drug candidates and pushes value up the biotech chain. It led the 2021 biotech bubble and still loses money, so buyers pay for the story, not the business. The same AI thesis is simpler and cheaper to own in vertical market software, through serial acquirers such as Constellation Software and Topicus, which gain more acquisition targets as software gets cheaper to build. x.comÂ
ARKG's genomics thesis faces a timing problem, as much of the index consists of companies with no important clinical data readouts until 2028 or later. Clinical trials remain painstakingly long, and AI is moving faster than trial progress can keep up with, raising the question of when the broader biotech theme becomes overextended. x.comÂ
AI biotech names such as Tempus AI, Recursion, Ginkgo Bioworks and Prime Medicine could become the new home for money rotating out of AI and semiconductor leaders, with Moderna and Merck's positive phase 3 melanoma results for their mRNA neoantigen therapy a possible catalyst. Sentiment toward AI in healthcare should be far warmer than toward job-displacing AI, since everyone faces disease, and could top the semis trade. Indices could chop or fall while these biotechs outperform. x.com x.com … Show more
Cerebras Systems builds AI chips that run up to 15x faster than leading GPU solutions, and it swung from a $481M net loss in 2024 to $237M net profit in 2025 as revenue rose 76% to $510M. Its IPO was 20x oversubscribed and priced at $185, above a raised range, and OpenAI and AWS have multi-year contracts. A small position suits those with AI-infrastructure conviction and real risk tolerance; cautious investors should wait for one or two earnings reports, as IPO 12-month returns are weak. x.comÂ
AI-biotech leaders are priced at a fraction of what the market pays for chip makers, which defies logic. Bruker holds the No. 1 or 2 spot in most of its portfolio and faces far less long-term competition than a typical 30x-sales chip name, yet trades at 3x sales. Marvell added nearly $100 billion overnight, while Twist, Schrodinger, Bruker and Recursion together are worth under $20 billion. AI gains must become real-world value, and these companies lead much of the AI-bio pipeline. x.com x.comÂ
10x Genomics is being re-rated as an AI biology and data-layer company, and that re-rating is real. The stock hit a new 52-week high and is still riding its 21-day moving average. x.comÂ
Genomics is likely one of the most important long-term investment themes of the next decade, as AI speeds how life's information is read, understood and edited. Picks: Illumina in sequencing; Tempus AI for AI with genomic data; CRISPR Therapeutics and Beam in gene editing; uniQure (high risk, high payoff) and BioMarin (more certain) in gene therapy; Natera and Guardant Health in diagnostics; Twist Bioscience and Thermo Fisher in tools; Vertex and Alnylam in therapeutics. x.comÂ
