IQE is held above its fundamental fair value by optimistic expectations, and its takeover thesis is effectively dead. With MACOM as anchor investor holding board seats and exclusive long-term supply deals, a bidding war is practically ruled out. The 19.8p placing, a 58% discount, takes dilution since early 2025 to about 42%, and the £81 million mostly repays debt, so capex needs another raise within 18-24 months. If momentum fades the stock will fall; if it strengthens, it can keep rising. x.com 

IQE's 43% first-half revenue growth overstates the recovery, because the group is still slightly smaller than two years ago. Photonics is a genuine breakout at £38.5m, 44% above H1 2024, but wireless at £26.0m remains a third below that level and is still recovering. A £4.0m working-capital outflow absorbed the margin gain, 61% of May's £81m raise went to lenders, and depreciation runs about nine times capex. Converted InP lines delivering H2 volume without more capex would prove efficiency. … Show more

IQE is priced for skepticism it no longer deserves, while Sivers Semiconductors is priced for perfection it has not delivered, though both sit in the same AI optical chain. Sivers trades at about 85x sales with negative EBITDA, and Q1 revenue missed. IQE trades near 4-5x sales, is EBITDA positive, guides 20%+ growth to at least £117M in 2026, has cleared bank debt with MACOM's backing, and trades far below peer LandMark at about 70x forward. Sivers is worth revisiting only if its price resets. … Show more

IQE's bottleneck position in AI optics is already priced in, so the easy money is gone until its revenue and profits grow. Per @jpinsights, IQE grows the indium phosphide epiwafers high-speed lasers are built from, and validation came through MACOM's GBP45m investment, Tower's multi-year supply deal and a GBP81m raise. But the stock has rerated hard, and it is unclear whether any of this has reached IQE's own numbers. x.com 

IQE's outsourced epitaxy business is structurally disadvantaged because demanding optics customers want the whole chain under their own control. Big integrated players such as Lumentum and Applied Optoelectronics run their own reactors and want to control manufacturing conditions throughout. Shipping wafers to an outside fab for epi growth and back falls short of that ideal, so regardless of IQE's execution the business model is unappealing, even as @crux_capital_ turns more positive. x.com 

IQE is reaching its financial inflection point as InP demand for AI and data centers drives growth. It raised 2026 revenue growth guidance from 20% to over 30% after H1 revenue of £64m versus £45m, and forecasts low-teens £m adjusted EBITDA. MACOM's investment left it debt-free with £42m of cash. The 30% target looks deliberately conservative after past over-optimism; as @mkfilko notes, it implies H2 revenue below H1, which seems unlikely. x.com  x.com 

AXT's upside looks capped because its valuation already prices in a near-flawless indium phosphide capacity ramp. Doubling its ~25k wafers a year by end-2026 and again by end-2027 gives ~100k, about 4x, likely with some multiple compression. Even with ~58% growth to 2028, 60% gross-profit growth after and a 20x EV/GP multiple, EV reaches only ~$6.9B in five years versus $6.1B now. Only surprise capacity beyond 2027 changes the math; Soitec, at 19x EV/GP, is the better play. x.com  x.com 

Coherent is more exciting than Lumentum at current multiples despite slower growth, because capacity, margin and segment catalysts are lining up. Its 6-inch indium phosphide capacity will soon double with a new Zurich site and is more cost-effective, lifting margins; OCS revenue picks up, and management expects datacom growth to accelerate in FY27. Communications grew 60% on scale-across. FY27 could bring 30–33% growth and EPS near $9.9; at about 33x FY27 earnings, below $300 is a better entry. … Show more

IQE is the real business in its part of the compound-semiconductor chain, trading at about 6x sales with positive EBITDA. AXT, the substrate maker one layer upstream, trades above 50x sales on a 12.7% gross margin, which is pure narrative premium. Per @mkfilko, IQE grows the epitaxy that does the work on top of that substrate and grows revenue faster than AXT, though some of the gap is real given AXT's substrate duopoly and cleaner AI-optical story. x.com 

Landmark Optoelectronics looks mispriced because investors see it as only a CW laser or photodetector play, missing the EML demand pulled through by Nvidia's supply lockup. It is a specialty InP/GaAs epi-wafer foundry, and as 800G-plus modules scale, much new capacity should go through merchant InP epi, which could at least double its revenue. Consensus tends to favor rival IntelliEPI for its US defense tailwind, and management may be sandbagging before the late-May shareholder meeting. x.com