Crude oil is headed for $150 a barrel, with the S&P 500 set to fall 25%. A string of US refinery and oil and gas infrastructure outages, such as the Colonial Pipeline incident flagged by @BankerWeimar, is striking as it coincides with a war in the Middle East. x.com  x.com 

An imminent Israeli strike on Iran puts Gulf oil infrastructure at unusually high risk over the next three months, supporting a near-term rise in crude oil. Large trades are betting on oil reaching $115 again. x.com 

Israel's and the US's upcoming elections may discourage further escalation, opening a path to peace and a sharp drop in oil if the war cools. Israel votes October 27 and the US November 3; lower oil would give crypto room to recover. x.com 

Crude oil should stay severely elevated into 2027 because the Iran war is expected to run well into spring with no deal. That outlook comes with expected Fed hikes of 50bps, more chop or another deep correction in stock indexes in 2026 and an even bigger selloff in high-beta names. These predictions could be wrong. x.com 

Oil is going back up rapidly because the Iran conflict is escalating again. x.com 

Extreme bullishness about an oil shortage is a warning because oil has tended to return to around $50 within 12-18 months after such talk. Calls for a 'great oil repricing' appeared today, though they may not be widespread enough yet to mark the same setup. x.com  x.com 

Oil traders anticipate a resumption of the Iran war after the midterm elections, favoring more upside for crude oil. After a bullish reversal off its 10-week moving average, the odds favor a continuation of the rally to the $110-120 range. x.com 

Crude oil's last cushion is gone as recovering demand squeezes constrained Middle East supply. Barclays puts China imports near pre-war levels at 10.5m b/d, India up 600,000 b/d year on year and Middle East flows at 84% of pre-war levels; US demand is recovering. After more than 500m barrels of inventory were drawn down, buyers are paying a $13/bbl premium for next-week cargoes over the front-month contract, versus under $4 a week into the war. x.com 

Crude oil should fall back into the $60s and likely well below over time once the Iran war is resolved. Middle East producers are overproducing but cannot export the barrels, so when the Strait fully reopens they will flood the market. Oil tried to break down from its trend line but was rejected, and bigger resolution news is likely needed to push it much lower. Cheaper oil would remove current inflation fears, setting up a deflationary boom. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil and the XLE energy-sector ETF would be buys on a pullback because uncertainty over a real military strike could hang over the US market from the midterms through year-end. Only an actual strike or a true peace deal would settle that uncertainty. x.com