Oil stays above $80 well past the midterms because the supply problem persists despite peace headlines. Ships are still attacked near Saudi Arabia, Yemen and the UAE; a reported US strike on Iran's Konarak Naval Base ended nearly seven weeks without US strikes. There is nobody in Iran who can sign a deal and end the conflict. x.com 

Oil traders anticipate a resumption of the Iran war after the midterm elections, favoring more upside for crude oil. After a bullish reversal off its 10-week moving average, the odds favor a continuation of the rally to the $110-120 range. x.com 

Crude oil faces a return of the glut. Per @JavierBlas, the IEA's first look at 2027 sees too much oil again by this time next year, as Hormuz is expected to reopen, though the agency warns of higher-than-normal uncertainty in its supply and demand forecasts. x.com 

Crude oil should stay elevated until there is a firm deal on the Strait of Hormuz, because a war, unlike tariffs, cannot be undone with a single social-media post. A deal may come soon but could take a while. Meanwhile bond markets are pricing higher inflation and no Fed cuts for much of 2026; only a peace deal with Iran and the strait's reopening would change that backdrop. x.com  x.com 

An imminent Israeli strike on Iran puts Gulf oil infrastructure at unusually high risk over the next three months, supporting a near-term rise in crude oil. Large trades are betting on oil reaching $115 again. x.com 

Crude oil should fall back into the $60s and likely well below over time once the Iran war is resolved. Middle East producers are overproducing but cannot export the barrels, so when the Strait fully reopens they will flood the market. Oil tried to break down from its trend line but was rejected, and bigger resolution news is likely needed to push it much lower. Cheaper oil would remove current inflation fears, setting up a deflationary boom. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil should stay sticky and higher because a US-Iran deal is now less likely than at any prior stage of the war. Trust has collapsed after the truce fallout, and Trump has little motivation to push for peace while oil stays below $100 ahead of November; only a break above $100 would build inflationary and electoral pressure for action. Until then, rising 10-year yields above 4.6% are the biggest headwind for equities and bitcoin. Hopefully tensions ease instead. x.com 

Oil should rise and stocks fall over the next two weeks as the Iran war escalates further. Trump ordered the military not to carry out planned strikes on Iran, per Axios, yet the conflict looks set to intensify. Megacap earnings probably won't save the market, since it is punishing negative free cash flow. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oil will come down significantly, because Trump will eventually make a deal with Iran and put the conflict to bed. x.com 

Oil rises every time the Iran war escalates, making a long position on each escalation an easy trade. x.com