Crude oil stays elevated as long as there is no deal with Iran, feeding a vicious cycle in which higher oil keeps inflation sticky and pushes rates higher, breaking the bond market. To bring yields down, Trump must either convince the market oil flows are normal or end the war. x.com 

Crude oil should stay severely elevated into 2027 because the Iran war is expected to run well into spring with no deal. That outlook comes with expected Fed hikes of 50bps, more chop or another deep correction in stock indexes in 2026 and an even bigger selloff in high-beta names. These predictions could be wrong. x.com 

Crude oil should fall back into the $60s and likely well below over time once the Iran war is resolved. Middle East producers are overproducing but cannot export the barrels, so when the Strait fully reopens they will flood the market. Oil tried to break down from its trend line but was rejected, and bigger resolution news is likely needed to push it much lower. Cheaper oil would remove current inflation fears, setting up a deflationary boom. x.com  x.com 

Oil stays above $80 well past the midterms because the supply problem persists despite peace headlines. Ships are still attacked near Saudi Arabia, Yemen and the UAE; a reported US strike on Iran's Konarak Naval Base ended nearly seven weeks without US strikes. There is nobody in Iran who can sign a deal and end the conflict. x.com 

Crude oil should stay sticky and higher because a US-Iran deal is now less likely than at any prior stage of the war. Trust has collapsed after the truce fallout, and Trump has little motivation to push for peace while oil stays below $100 ahead of November; only a break above $100 would build inflationary and electoral pressure for action. Until then, rising 10-year yields above 4.6% are the biggest headwind for equities and bitcoin. Hopefully tensions ease instead. x.com 

Crude oil looks headed lower as tanker traffic through the strait nears pre-war levels and Trump makes cheaper oil a priority. Per CNN via @Osint613, the U.S. moved 40 tankers carrying about 18 million barrels through the strait on Tuesday, a daily record since the war began and only slightly below the pre-war 20 million. Once the Iran saga is over, oil will probably be cheaper than before the war. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil's safety buffer is draining at a record pace, so the next supply shock will hit a market with far less protection. The Iran war and near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz have removed over 1 billion barrels of supply, and Morgan Stanley estimates stockpiles fell about 4.8 million barrels a day from March 1 to April 25, a record. A record 400 million barrels of emergency reserves have been pledged, and inventories are near 2018 lows. Even if Hormuz reopens, restocking will add demand. … Show more

Crude oil is set to stay more expensive for longer because the supply chain disruption from the Iran conflict is real and will not be fixed soon. Its effects are already visible in Europe and likely in Asia. Even a supply shock lasting only a few weeks would take months or quarters to reverse, feeding global inflation and possibly rate hikes. The longer the situation lasts, the more pain and the longer the repair. x.com 

Oil looks set to fall whichever way the Iran war goes. If it escalates, the US takes over Iran's oil; if it de-escalates, the US says Iran wants to talk. x.com  x.com 

An imminent Israeli strike on Iran puts Gulf oil infrastructure at unusually high risk over the next three months, supporting a near-term rise in crude oil. Large trades are betting on oil reaching $115 again. x.com