Walmart looks like a safe-haven play after falling about 25% from its highs, with UBS expecting record Q2 sales when it reports next week. The chart is forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern with a 12-point target from the neckline. x.com
Dr. Stoxx
Stock Trader & Author, Oxford DPhil, Trading Education
Walmart may be setting up for a big bounce, with its pullback matching the pattern of its last two bottoms. The stock is down about 25% from its all-time high, as it was before both prior bottoms, which also showed RSI divergence. Its forward P/E has fallen from near 40 earlier this year to a more respectable 31, and it is holding just above the psychological $100 level near a prior breakout area. x.com
Walmart has the strongest fundamentals in retail, with $725B+ of revenue, exploding e-commerce and market-share gains while rivals bleed. It is a defensive cash-printing machine in a shaky economy, and analysts rate it a moderate buy with $140+ targets. x.com
Walmart is arguably more exposed than its safe-haven history suggests, because its edge rests on competing with Amazon, and doing that clearly will require far more capital. Historically it has been a place to hide, but that does not mean owning or shorting it; it is simply a stock to avoid. x.com x.com
Walmart is ripping higher and is close to its upper price target on the chart. x.com
Walmart keeps compounding through recessions because people never stop eating in bad years; they buy more chicken and less filet, and Walmart sells the chicken. It compounded through the 2001, 2008 and 2020 recessions. Wealth comes from finding a business that never has a truly bad year, not from moonshots. x.com
Walmart is being pumped like a new dot-com company, but its high P/E will need to be matched by revenue growth, which investors will soon realize. x.com
Consumer staples such as Costco, Walmart, Procter & Gamble, Kroger, General Mills, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo are among the names to study if hantavirus fear dominates the next 60-90 days, whether or not a lockdown happens. Markets react to perception before confirmed reality, and fear alone shifts attention, behavior and capital flows. A real pandemic is not needed; the fear narrative only has to persist long enough for capital and behavior to start shifting. x.com
Symbotic offers the best risk/reward now as the only Western vendor shipping a turnkey AI warehouse robotics stack at Walmart scale, with every Walmart distribution center under contract and a multi-billion-dollar backlog. Robots are commodities; its vision, software and fleet orchestration, which Amazon spent a decade building in-house, are the moat. At $47, down 46% from its high, the drawdown is the entry: EPS could double in two years if Walmart's rollout stays on track, for $70-90 value. … Show more
Walmart is too expensive at 47 times earnings and has further to fall over the next few months. x.com
Apple has always acted as a defensive stock when markets rotate: when AI momentum weakens, Apple and consumer names like Amazon, Costco and Walmart tend to do well. x.com