DON7SPY
Industrial Engineer, MBA Finance, Data/Supply-Chain Background, Options Analysis
Walmart's 43.28x earnings multiple makes the stock impossible to buy for a long time. Its historical median is 31.13x, and even at 30x it would not be attractive. x.comÂ
Walmart is being pumped like a new dot-com company, but its high P/E will need to be matched by revenue growth, which investors will soon realize. x.comÂ
Walmart may be setting up for a big bounce, with its pullback matching the pattern of its last two bottoms. The stock is down about 25% from its all-time high, as it was before both prior bottoms, which also showed RSI divergence. Its forward P/E has fallen from near 40 earlier this year to a more respectable 31, and it is holding just above the psychological $100 level near a prior breakout area. x.comÂ
Costco and Walmart's valuations have diverged from most US food and beverage stocks. Most of the group trades near 20-year valuation lows, while these two have entered a mini-bubble. x.comÂ
Walmart still trades at 44 times earnings even as it heads for its worst day since 2023. Per @StockSavvyShay, the drop came after Walmart warned that US consumers are feeling pressure and that persistent cost pressures could bring somewhat higher retail price inflation in Q2 and the second half. x.com x.comÂ
Walmart has the strongest fundamentals in retail, with $725B+ of revenue, exploding e-commerce and market-share gains while rivals bleed. It is a defensive cash-printing machine in a shaky economy, and analysts rate it a moderate buy with $140+ targets. x.comÂ
Walmart is arguably more exposed than its safe-haven history suggests, because its edge rests on competing with Amazon, and doing that clearly will require far more capital. Historically it has been a place to hide, but that does not mean owning or shorting it; it is simply a stock to avoid. x.com x.comÂ
Walmart's 41x P/E looks hard to justify when gas prices are going through the roof. x.comÂ
Walmart looks like a safe-haven play after falling about 25% from its highs, with UBS expecting record Q2 sales when it reports next week. The chart is forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern with a 12-point target from the neckline. x.comÂ
Walmart's valuation is too high for a grocery and household retailer. At about 36 times next year's earnings, it exceeds its five-year norm of 25 and the roughly 20 times this business should command; Target trades near 16 times. Stay away from Walmart here. x.comÂ