Walmart's valuation is too high for a grocery and household retailer. At about 36 times next year's earnings, it exceeds its five-year norm of 25 and the roughly 20 times this business should command; Target trades near 16 times. Stay away from Walmart here. x.com 

Walmart does not deserve 40x forward earnings, especially with comparable sales growth at its slowest in over six years. Per @negligible_cap, the stock fell 6% on decelerating comps and could eventually have a Target- or Nike-style moment as investors realize it can't hold that multiple forever. x.com  x.com 

Costco is the preferred hedge against OpenAI's much higher valuation relative to revenue. Costco's cited $441B valuation comes with $275B revenue, versus OpenAI's $1.4T valuation and $50B revenue. x.com 

Walmart and Costco are hard to justify buying at their re-rated multiples, and both will someday get a major multiple re-rating down, as annuity-stream stock Rollins recently did. About 30-40% of valuations like these reflects earnings reliability, as with Apple. They probably deserve about 25x earnings, but the road there may be long; someday they'll be buyable at teens multiples. Walmart's earnings day was its worst since 2022, and $104 is still not low enough. x.com  x.com 

Walmart's 43.28x earnings multiple makes the stock impossible to buy for a long time. Its historical median is 31.13x, and even at 30x it would not be attractive. x.com 

Discount retailers are a built-in recession hedge because consumers trade down rather than stop spending. Walmart, Costco, TJX, and Dollar General should benefit as worsening economic conditions send more shoppers through their doors. x.com 

Costco looks overvalued at about 50 times earnings, one of a few pockets of dumb behavior alongside CrowdStrike, Tesla and Arm, though true bubbles are rare outside a few areas. The key for the market will be breadth: whether stocks left out of this cycle lift the market as the leaders correct. x.com 

Costco already looks quite overvalued, with a forward P/E that is crazy high. x.com 

Costco is a wonderful execution story whose business only gets better through consumer pain. Its Kirkland brand is more valuable than 90% of consumer brands today. The stock has been too expensive this cycle, and not owning it in size was a mistake; it is worth owning, though the right entry level is unclear. Sysco's moves illustrate the deeper transformation underway. x.com 

Walmart's valuation looks like a bubble about to pop: investors pay 37x earnings for 6% revenue growth. Amazon is a more direct comparison and is way cheaper with roughly three times faster growth. x.com  x.com