Costco is the preferred hedge against OpenAI's much higher valuation relative to revenue. Costco's cited $441B valuation comes with $275B revenue, versus OpenAI's $1.4T valuation and $50B revenue. x.comÂ
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Costco could gain massive market share as AI shopping agents route spending away from Amazon. Through Meta's Muse, one household bought sporting gear from Costco and Dick's, a Frigidaire from Costco and a Target e-gift card, well over $1K that bypassed Amazon, which is blocking Muse shopping. Amazon's retail strategy needs to evolve or it could quickly become the next Sears. x.comÂ
NVIDIA can be bought for less than half Costco's valuation multiple as the great AI rotation arrives. x.comÂ
Costco is very overvalued, while Nvidia is undervalued. Per @charliebilello, Costco trades at 45 times forward earnings, Walmart at 36 and Nvidia at 17. A high multiple can be justified for growth companies like Nvidia, but not for Costco and definitely not for Walmart. x.com x.comÂ
Costco is a wonderful execution story whose business only gets better through consumer pain. Its Kirkland brand is more valuable than 90% of consumer brands today. The stock has been too expensive this cycle, and not owning it in size was a mistake; it is worth owning, though the right entry level is unclear. Sysco's moves illustrate the deeper transformation underway. x.comÂ
Costco doesn't follow the stage 3 to stage 4 breakdown that pattern traders expect, because its fundamentals don't allow it and institutions are willing to pay a premium valuation for its stability. That replies to @ohiain, who notes Costco hit fresh all-time highs as institutional money rotates back toward defensive leadership. x.comÂ
Costco is an amazing company, but at roughly 40x forward earnings its stock is pricing in a lot of perfection. x.comÂ
Costco's commitment to employees, such as covering a family's health care needs and adjusting work schedules for hard circumstances, drives a virtuous cycle. Being a good employer and corporate citizen and treating consumers honestly and fairly is rewarded with strong loyalty and financial success. x.comÂ
Costco is one of the few businesses likely to keep growing around 10% for the next 10-15 years, which makes a large drawdown doubtful. It has a large growth runway outside the US and Canada, with Asia especially promising, very low membership churn, and scale economies shared with members, so it grows more efficient as it expands. An aging population also helps. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Costco and Walmart's valuations have diverged from most US food and beverage stocks. Most of the group trades near 20-year valuation lows, while these two have entered a mini-bubble. x.comÂ
OpenAI is winning, making SoftBank stock worth seriously considering as an investment. The view is still at the consideration stage. x.comÂ