artisanwill
Equity & Options Trader, Analyst at The Option Cartel, MS Finance
Uncertain AI-capex profits and higher oil costs from Iran still threaten US stocks. The SPCX-Nvidia deal brought much-needed overnight inflows to chips and is shifting sentiment, but tech's waterfall decline will not heal with a sharp V-bottom. Be prepared for a big fade. x.com
Dell Technologies has shifted decisively to the bullish side on staggering AI server demand, raised guidance and political endorsement, including a call to "go out and buy a Dell." The chart shows a bullish pennant. A gap below could still fill, but a move higher puts $469.47 next as a challenge to prior highs, with a Fibonacci target of $535.35 above that. x.com
Dell looks overvalued, trading about seven turns above its historical multiple range and at a premium to many AI semiconductor bottleneck names despite not providing a bottleneck solution. Michael Dell spiking the ball on the latest quarter might mark the top. x.com
AI hardware stocks such as Dell, NVIDIA, STMicroelectronics, SanDisk, Micron, Western Digital and Seagate are worth owning after leading for three years, digesting healthily for three months and now trading at attractive valuations. AI amounts to selling humans and buying robots, pushing intelligence prices down and hardware prices up. @jsmian warns returns get squeezed if intelligence prices fall faster than costs, but the alpha is large enough that even poor fills leave plenty of profit. x.com … Show more
Dell has room to run to $800 next after its climb from the $450s to $600, backed by heavy options buying. Someone has bet over $4 million in one of the most aggressive options buy executions seen. x.com
Dell has a decent shot at fading because the cycle is clearly at the point where it should crest. x.com
Dell was set to rise as analysts raise their estimates, and the shares were up 8% after hours. x.com
Dell bulls who bought heavily today look set for a massive gain tomorrow. x.com
Dell's re-rating from hardware vendor to AI platform has largely happened, so the stock is not worth chasing at about $440, or 24-25x forward earnings after a 150% YTD gain and a 40% gap, even though the business is near-flawless. Fiscal Q1 revenue rose 88% to $43.8B and full-year guidance rose about $27B to $165-169B, with AI servers up 757% and a record $51.3B backlog. Risks include AI-diluted gross margins, ballooning receivables and inventory, pull-forward demand and Dell-financed sales. … Show more
Dell can run to $600 as heavy call buying and support from Trump meet a tightening chart. @FL0WG0D flags $18.4 million into Dell $500 calls, and volume is drying up while the stock consolidates in a symmetrical triangle. x.com x.com