Dell has a decent shot at fading because the cycle is clearly at the point where it should crest. x.com
TBU
Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Commentary
Dell faces heavy selling pressure as the Dell Foundation has filed to sell $1.2 billion of Dell shares. The last time it did so, the stock fell 24% in just six days. x.com
Dell looks overvalued, trading about seven turns above its historical multiple range and at a premium to many AI semiconductor bottleneck names despite not providing a bottleneck solution. Michael Dell spiking the ball on the latest quarter might mark the top. x.com
Dell was set to rise as analysts raise their estimates, and the shares were up 8% after hours. x.com
Dell is still a hardware company with low pricing power and only an 18% margin profile, which the FOMO chasers now piling in overlook. The stock may still go higher. x.com
Dell is heavily overearning heading into a two-sigma melt-up, leaving the stock exposed to a reversal. x.com
Dell offers good value and is attempting to break out of its prior all-time-high range. A post the author replies to puts its forward P/E at 12 and sees $200+ ahead. x.com
Dell's jump to about $470 on earnings may not hold, because system integrator and hardware vendor margins are notoriously fickle. A fall back to the normal trendline around $300-350 would not be surprising. x.com
Dell's re-rating from hardware vendor to AI platform has largely happened, so the stock is not worth chasing at about $440, or 24-25x forward earnings after a 150% YTD gain and a 40% gap, even though the business is near-flawless. Fiscal Q1 revenue rose 88% to $43.8B and full-year guidance rose about $27B to $165-169B, with AI servers up 757% and a record $51.3B backlog. Risks include AI-diluted gross margins, ballooning receivables and inventory, pull-forward demand and Dell-financed sales. … Show more
Dell has room to run to $800 next after its climb from the $450s to $600, backed by heavy options buying. Someone has bet over $4 million in one of the most aggressive options buy executions seen. x.com
Dell still looks expensive at about 20x FY28 estimated EPS, since the expected AI server guidance raise to about $75bn is already priced in; the rating stays Hold. Fiscal Q2 looks soft, with revenue estimated at $42.2bn versus a $44.5bn guidance midpoint and EPS of $4.70 versus $4.84 consensus. NVL72 shipment estimates are cut, enterprise and PC demand show early cooling, and Hon Hai is winning more SpaceX Rubin orders. Tier-2 neocloud buildouts and Vera CPU racks are positives. x.com