Dell's jump to about $470 on earnings may not hold, because system integrator and hardware vendor margins are notoriously fickle. A fall back to the normal trendline around $300-350 would not be surprising. x.com
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Super Micro's improved expected gross margin kills the bear case, while quarterly revenue near its market cap makes the stock a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. It expects first-quarter gross margin of 12%-12.5% versus 10.4%-10.8% guidance and revenue of $18.5B-$19.5B versus $14.5B-$15.5B guidance, against a roughly $21B market cap. Shares should return to all-time highs and, on a Grok-assisted comparison with Dell and HPE, easily top $100; once they break $50, the move to $100 could be fast. … Show more
Dell is heavily overearning heading into a two-sigma melt-up, leaving the stock exposed to a reversal. x.com
Dell has room to run to $800 next after its climb from the $450s to $600, backed by heavy options buying. Someone has bet over $4 million in one of the most aggressive options buy executions seen. x.com
Dell looks overvalued, trading about seven turns above its historical multiple range and at a premium to many AI semiconductor bottleneck names despite not providing a bottleneck solution. Michael Dell spiking the ball on the latest quarter might mark the top. x.com
Dell still looks expensive at about 20x FY28 estimated EPS, since the expected AI server guidance raise to about $75bn is already priced in; the rating stays Hold. Fiscal Q2 looks soft, with revenue estimated at $42.2bn versus a $44.5bn guidance midpoint and EPS of $4.70 versus $4.84 consensus. NVL72 shipment estimates are cut, enterprise and PC demand show early cooling, and Hon Hai is winning more SpaceX Rubin orders. Tier-2 neocloud buildouts and Vera CPU racks are positives. x.com
Dell should benefit from AI data-center construction because builders say almost every new facility runs on Dell or Super Micro servers. Sales rose 49% in the past year to $151B; Dell is 18% below its high and is an easy double from here. x.com
Dell is still a hardware company with low pricing power and only an 18% margin profile, which the FOMO chasers now piling in overlook. The stock may still go higher. x.com
Dell has a decent shot at fading because the cycle is clearly at the point where it should crest. x.com
Dell is breaking out on incredible quarterly and yearly growth, no longer the PC company it once was. The next stop is $600. x.com x.com
Dell faces heavy selling pressure as the Dell Foundation has filed to sell $1.2 billion of Dell shares. The last time it did so, the stock fell 24% in just six days. x.com