Dell is heavily overearning heading into a two-sigma melt-up, leaving the stock exposed to a reversal. x.com
Masa’s Son
Non-Consensus Long/Short Technology Investor
Dell looks overvalued, trading about seven turns above its historical multiple range and at a premium to many AI semiconductor bottleneck names despite not providing a bottleneck solution. Michael Dell spiking the ball on the latest quarter might mark the top. x.com
Dell is still a hardware company with low pricing power and only an 18% margin profile, which the FOMO chasers now piling in overlook. The stock may still go higher. x.com
Dell should easily trade above $500 after a very strong Q2 FY27 report. Revenue rose about 58% to roughly $47B, AI server backlog hit a record of about $95B, FY27 revenue guidance rose by about $25B, and management now expects AI server revenue to triple this year rather than double. That the stock sat at morning lows after such results says a lot about the current state of the AI trade. x.com x.com
Dell's re-rating from hardware vendor to AI platform has largely happened, so the stock is not worth chasing at about $440, or 24-25x forward earnings after a 150% YTD gain and a 40% gap, even though the business is near-flawless. Fiscal Q1 revenue rose 88% to $43.8B and full-year guidance rose about $27B to $165-169B, with AI servers up 757% and a record $51.3B backlog. Risks include AI-diluted gross margins, ballooning receivables and inventory, pull-forward demand and Dell-financed sales. … Show more
Hewlett Packard Enterprise's 30% jump looks like dot-com bubble behavior, since the stock trades at about -250 times earnings. Even after a strong earnings report it remains a poor-quality company; Dell and Cisco earned their multiple expansion with great fundamentals and undervaluation. A post the author replies to argues HPE, which sells servers and networking, is a laggard rerating toward the leaders. x.com x.com
Dell was set to rise as analysts raise their estimates, and the shares were up 8% after hours. x.com
Dell faces heavy selling pressure as the Dell Foundation has filed to sell $1.2 billion of Dell shares. The last time it did so, the stock fell 24% in just six days. x.com
SanDisk ranks in the top 6% of the universe for its mix of attractive valuation and strong price momentum, as Dell's results strengthened expectations for sustained AI storage demand. Dell's Q2 revenue jumped 58% to $47 billion, with a record $95 billion AI backlog and FY2027 revenue guidance raised from $167 billion to $192 billion. x.com
Dell has broken through $500 and now targets all-time highs. x.com
Dell still looks expensive at about 20x FY28 estimated EPS, since the expected AI server guidance raise to about $75bn is already priced in; the rating stays Hold. Fiscal Q2 looks soft, with revenue estimated at $42.2bn versus a $44.5bn guidance midpoint and EPS of $4.70 versus $4.84 consensus. NVL72 shipment estimates are cut, enterprise and PC demand show early cooling, and Hon Hai is winning more SpaceX Rubin orders. Tier-2 neocloud buildouts and Vera CPU racks are positives. x.com