Novo Nordisk gains a first-mover product: per FirstSquawk, it will launch Ozempic tablets in the US on May 4, the first oral peptide GLP-1 approved by the FDA for adults with type 2 diabetes. x.comÂ
Chris
Engineer & Entrepreneur, Equity/Crypto Swing Trader, Macro & Trade Setups
Oral Wegovy removes one of the biggest barriers to GLP-1 adoption, yet investors are still sleeping on Novo Nordisk even though prescription data already show the launch going very well. Per @agingroy, Ozempic and Mounjaro generated $71 billion in 2025, more than OpenAI and Anthropic's combined $29 billion, and only about 2% of the 800 million eligible patients can currently access them. x.comÂ
Novo Nordisk is one of the best opportunities in the market and a safe haven in an AI-driven market, crushed while its long-term growth story is rebuilt. It trades at 9x earnings with a 4.64% dividend yield, controls about 80% of the GLP-1 weight-loss pill market and plans to scale oral GLP-1 capacity 10x by 2030. Revenue growth is expected to return to double digits in 2027, and it has partnered with Anthropic on drug discovery. It would need a 110% rally to regain its 200-week average. x.comÂ
Novo Nordisk's management showed too little action against near-term problems, leaving the case in real doubt for the first time. A 5-10-year recovery plan clashes with the semaglutide patent expiring within that window, already lost in Canada, India and Turkey, while Eli Lilly poses real threats. Pipeline work in blood/endocrine, liver and cardiovascular is exciting and diversifying would be a game changer, and NovoCare is a positive, but the clock is running and management is uninspiring. … Show more
Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill is pharma's holy grail and is expanding the obesity market. Its first quarter after launch was stellar, with about 1 million new patients in three months per @TTRAmyloid. Per Novo's CEO, about 35% of pill users are men versus roughly 25% on injections, and 80% of pill starters never tried a GLP-1 before. The 30-minute fasting rule is no real obstacle, especially as the pill sharply cuts hunger, and data so far show better efficacy beats convenience. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Novo Nordisk is an excellent stock to accumulate gradually after falling more than 70% from its peak, with 2026 looking like a near-term bottom. At about $40.50 it trades at 11-12 times forward earnings, below peers, and analyst targets of $57-65 imply 40-60% upside. Indirect April data show 25mg oral Wegovy beating rivals on weight loss with milder side effects. An OpenAI drug-discovery alliance, a DKK 15 billion buyback, a 4.45% dividend yield and gross margins above 82% add support. x.comÂ
Eli Lilly has the market momentum over Novo Nordisk in GLP-1 drugs. Lilly's Zepbound sold $4B in Q1 against $2.7B for Novo's Wegovy, and Novo's lawsuit over GLP-1 advertising looks defensive. Lilly's direct-to-consumer head start and manufacturing scale appear durable. A GLP-1 market heading to $100B by 2030 remains the most structurally attractive healthcare trade. x.comÂ
Novo Nordisk trades at its lowest valuation ever, about 7x earnings, in the same year it launched one of the most in-demand oral medications in the world. Competition from Eli Lilly is a real headwind, but even if Novo's oral market share fell to 50% it should do fine, and an expected 1-3% earnings drop next year hardly justifies 7x. Novo should still be competing at a similar scale in seven years. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Novo Nordisk could run with healthcare stocks as tech sells off, helped by the midterm health trend of the last 20 years. The market seems to be looking for value in health and pharma. Novo's $11.8 billion in free cash flow and major buybacks at these levels should eventually lift its depressed price once investors realize Novo and Eli Lilly can both do well in oral GLP-1s, where Novo leads. Novo might have found a bottom. x.comÂ
Novo Nordisk's P/E is expected to rise because its earnings are expected to drop. The market is forward-looking, not backward-looking, and it doesn't like companies that have completely messed up for years, as Novo has. x.comÂ
Novo Nordisk stands to gain from Medicare access starting July 1, 2026, which could let millions of patients get Wegovy, including the new oral pill, for $50 a month. Novo leads on the convenient oral peptide pill while Lilly leads overall with tirzepatide, and Hims now partners with Novo and has stopped pushing most compounded versions. The weekly chart shows an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout. x.comÂ