Agility Robotics' SPAC merger with Churchill Capital Corp XI is not the retail-access win it is sold as, because the venture returns are already gone. Amazon, SoftBank and Foxconn aren't new backers; they are rolling existing equity under a 180-day lockup. The $200M minimum cash condition signals that sponsors expect heavy redemptions rather than offering a safeguard. Public investors get the leftover risk without the leftover upside. x.com  x.com 

Bakkt's history of pivots, reverse splits and dilution makes it far likelier to go to zero than to become a legendary multibagger. Through each iteration, investors are assured this time is different and it is a whole new company. Occasionally such companies pull it off, but usually they do not. x.com 

Kodiak AI is one of the money-losing SPAC mergers that should have stayed private longer, lacking a clear near-term path to profitability or enough cash to get there. Coming public via SPAC is not itself the problem: Vertiv is up 2,000% since its merger closed, but for every such success there are about 20 money-losers. x.com 

Some de-SPACs below their $10 trust value are live businesses with real assets still priced as wreckage, and buying before they graduate is the trade. Merlin cleared Critical Design Review on its $105M USSOCOM autonomous-flight program, with $183M cash and no debt. Opendoor cut aged inventory from 51% to 10%, turned EBITDA positive in April and holds $1B cash. Eos Energy owns its zinc storage chemistry, free of Chinese supply chains. Most de-SPACs still fail, and sponsors profit from dilution. … Show more