Chris
Engineer & Entrepreneur, Equity/Crypto Swing Trader, Macro & Trade Setups
Semiconductors are in full bubble territory, and the bubble is worth playing while it lasts, with risk managed accordingly. Semis keep going vertical even as market breadth elsewhere is putrid, so the real question is how much further the momentum chase can run. The correction could still be 3-6 months away as retail takes advantage of thin liquidity and short squeezes. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
The Roundhill Memory ETF looks vulnerable because its late launch fits the pattern of Wall Street selling hot themes to the public shortly before they top. DRAM was a monster trade of 2026 in April and May, led by Sandisk and Micron. It topped two months after debut and is rolling into Stage 4 against its 10-week EMA; the similarly late-launched FOTO photonics ETF topped in just two weeks. x.comÂ
Roundhill's RAM fund is a 2x daily bet on the DRAM ETF, not a 2x of an already leveraged fund as stated earlier, but 2x leveraged products like it are still best avoided. They can work out, yet they can also go really badly. x.com x.comÂ
The Roundhill Memory ETF looks attractive because its largest daily buy volume in nearly two months extends the earlier accumulation sequence. Sellers may still have momentum; the bull case would be a large lower wick holding $60 into year-end. Calls to bet on it are extremely cheap. x.comÂ
The memory ETF is not worth buying yet, because it is essentially just the KOSPI plus Micron and more forced selling is likely in Korea. x.comÂ
Memory stocks are a temporarily hot theme that is likely to be replaced within months or years, which makes them a poor fit for long-term holders. x.comÂ
Memory stocks such as Micron, SK hynix, SanDisk, Western Digital and Seagate are bullish long term, but forced selling as Korean leverage unwinds could keep pressure on for a few more weeks. Korean greed and leverage spilled into US memory stocks and then other semis. Capex cuts look unlikely, but the unwind takes time; crypto's deleveraging from October 10, 2025 took six weeks to find a real bottom. Mechanical selling can push already low P/Es much lower, so caution is warranted short term. … Show more
SK hynix's new direct US listing is a small disadvantage for the Roundhill Memory ETF, which investors had bought partly to own SK hynix indirectly. Owning memory companies directly is preferable to the ETF. x.comÂ
SK hynix's ADR listing drawing leveraged ETFs is peak-cycle behavior, because the juiced vehicles always arrive after the demand is already in the price. A report in the thread notes the ADRs priced at a 3% premium as Wall Street readies a wave of leveraged ETFs on what is the biggest chip listing ever. x.comÂ
The Roundhill Memory ETF is a way to own the next Micron or Sandisk, since it is Roundhill's job to add such names long before most investors hear of them. x.comÂ
The Roundhill Memory ETF is hard to justify because 75% of its holdings sit in just three stocks, so investors pay a fee for little diversification. x.comÂ