Varun Takkar
Stock & Options Trading, Technical Analysis, Trading Community
Memory stocks may be at a local top, because the launch of a new 2x leveraged ETF on a sector, such as RAM tracking the Roundhill Memory ETF, has had an uncanny ability to mark local tops. x.comÂ
The Roundhill Memory ETF looks vulnerable because its late launch fits the pattern of Wall Street selling hot themes to the public shortly before they top. DRAM was a monster trade of 2026 in April and May, led by Sandisk and Micron. It topped two months after debut and is rolling into Stage 4 against its 10-week EMA; the similarly late-launched FOTO photonics ETF topped in just two weeks. x.comÂ
Per @zephyr_z9, the NAND industry will generate more in 2026-2027 than in the previous 16 years, and RAM is the memory-stock ETF for that trade. The industry generated about $720B cumulatively over 2010-2025 and is set to generate nearly $800B in the next two years alone, per the same quoted post. x.comÂ
Rising memory contract prices strengthen the case for memory stocks still far below their highs. JPMorgan forecasts Q4 DRAM prices up 13% and NAND up 18%; Micron is 28% below its 52-week high, Seagate 44%, Sandisk 47% and Western Digital 55%. x.comÂ
Memory should outperform over the next 6-12 months because demand is not slowing and supply is not catching up. The DRAM ETF is the easiest way to gain exposure, with Micron, Samsung and SK hynix as its top three positions. x.comÂ
The leveraged memory ETF should rebound because the latest dip in its underlying memory makers looks temporary. SK hynix and Samsung fell on costs tied to future expansion, which is normal market behavior, and both should recover, giving RAM a strong next session. x.comÂ
The Roundhill Memory ETF is a genuinely great way to get memory exposure, especially without access to foreign stocks. It concentrates on the three leaders, Micron at 24.6%, Samsung at 24.1% and SK Hynix at 23.1%, plus SanDisk, Kioxia, Western Digital, Nanya and Winbond. x.comÂ
SK hynix's five-year agreements with 14 major customers cover more than half its 2027-28 capacity, giving its memory earnings unusually long visibility. DRAM prices rose 28% and NAND 25% in the quarter, while operating profit reached 62.8 billion against 58.5 billion expected; Q4 DRAM shipments are guided up 25% from Q3. Those commitments support the view that demand is not peaking yet. Overweight, $400 target. x.comÂ
SK hynix's stronger pricing and contracted demand support the still-favored memory duration trade. DRAM and HBM capacity is sold out through 2029, and a supply-demand imbalance is expected through 2030. More than half of 2027-28 capacity is under long-term agreements, with agreed 2027 HBM prices significantly higher year on year. Guangfa HK expects fund flows and bearish sentiment to improve after earnings. x.comÂ
Either memory ETF is a reasonable way to own memory, with a preference for Tema's DISK and its slightly higher NAND weighting through Kioxia and Sandisk. DISK, built with SemiAnalysis, is far more diversified, while DRAM holds over 75% in Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung. DISK is too light on Micron, and DRAM too light on Sandisk. Offhand, NAND prices grew faster than DRAM for the first time in Q2. x.com x.comÂ