Burak Finance
Head of Analytics, Growth Investor, PLTR/NBIS/RKLB
A projected NAND shortage through 2028 supports the memory and storage scarcity case. Citi forecasts demand exceeding supply by 6.1% in 2027 and 5.5% in 2028, the deepest shortage since 2011. The names in focus are Micron, Sandisk, Western Digital, Seagate, SK hynix, Samsung and Kioxia. x.comÂ
Micron, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix look very cheap if their long-term agreements do not impose overly conservative price ceilings. Greater clarity on those pricing terms could send memory stocks up 30% in a single day. x.comÂ
Sandisk's fast-growing data-center revenue strengthens its case among memory names with upside. Data-center revenue rose 61% quarter over quarter; revenue of $11.03B, adjusted EPS of $49.51 and adjusted gross margin of 85.1% all exceeded estimates. For upside among Micron, Sandisk and Kioxia, Micron ranks first, then Sandisk, then Kioxia, until further guidance. x.com x.comÂ
The valuation gap favors SK hynix and Samsung over Corning, Seagate and Western Digital. Companies trading at 20x are still called cheap while the memory makers trade at 2x; Corning is not cheap on a $4 run rate even with growth, and neither are Seagate or Western Digital. The gap should narrow as memory rises while HDD stalls. x.com x.comÂ
Micron and SK hynix pricing in a memory shortage past 2030 extends the memory-cycle case beyond the Street's 2028 expectation. SK hynix's record quarter adds evidence: per Wall St Engine, revenue rose 328% to $78.9B, operating profit rose 632% to $62.8B, and operating margin hit 80%. Agentic and physical AI could add demand as they roll out. x.com x.comÂ
Micron's surging memory revenue points to a supercycle. Its segment and NAND revenue charts show a sharp recent acceleration, while the stock tests its rising 30-week average. x.comÂ
AI data and content creation could lift Seagate's and Western Digital's cross-cycle earnings even if supply catches up and pressures prices and margins. Western Digital reported hyperscaler demand signals through 2030/31, making 2013-2024 normalized earnings a poor baseline. Still not a huge fan of their stocks given their large premium to memory makers and Toshiba's production ramp. x.com x.comÂ
SK hynix's strong pricing and secured capacity could push memory stocks higher. Per Wall St Engine, its Q3 DRAM ASP rose by a high-20s percentage quarter over quarter, while long-term agreements cover more than half of its 2027-28 capacity. Those figures support the memory upcycle. x.comÂ
SK hynix's five-year agreements with 14 major customers cover more than half its 2027-28 capacity, giving its memory earnings unusually long visibility. DRAM prices rose 28% and NAND 25% in the quarter, while operating profit reached 62.8 billion against 58.5 billion expected; Q4 DRAM shipments are guided up 25% from Q3. Those commitments support the view that demand is not peaking yet. Overweight, $400 target. x.comÂ
Inflation, rising rates, Chinese competition and rising AI-related financial costs are pressuring the memory market. Micron, Samsung and SK hynix look exposed; waiting for the cycle to turn. x.com x.comÂ
Memory makers are capturing the AI capex boom through pricing power, so Micron, SK hynix and Samsung remain a screaming buy. UBS expects memory to take 64% of hyperscaler capex next year, rising from $369B to $933B while total capex goes from $1T to $1.45T, more than the whole increase. It is a price story, with UBS seeing DDR prices up 341% this year. It should not reverse soon: UBS has 2027 DRAM demand growing 36% versus supply at 19%, though the stocks have consolidated for three months. … Show more