Ted Zhang
Portfolio Manager of Turbotection at Revere Asset Management
The Nasdaq 100 looks stretched, making it prudent to trim extended names into strength, be more selective and size new buys smaller. QQQ is 7 ATRs above its 50-day moving average, and leaders such as Sandisk, Micron and leveraged Korea are heading for exhaustion moves. The US-Iran peace proposal could become a short-term sell-the-news event, though if earnings stay positive and the AI-productivity narrative returns, the market can run higher. x.com
The Nasdaq 100 faces short-term downside because a failed push to a new high leaves crowded bullish sentiment vulnerable to a break below. Despite record institutional accumulation and a long-term bullish position, five months of chop, a failed ATH and an attempted loss of the bullish trend favor hedging rather than adding leverage. x.com x.com
QQQ's remaining earnings, macro and election hurdles set up one more dip to punish late chasers. The index looks good and is pricing in some good news today, but Amazon, Intel and SanDisk earnings plus PCE and GDP arrive tomorrow, followed by AMD earnings and elections Tuesday. Expect one more, probably modest, dip Wednesday or Thursday next week before November's upward seasonality takes effect. x.com
Anthropic's S-1 and @UncleAlpha007's claim that Microsoft is growing despite a 27% headcount cut have turned the near-term tech-equity view bullish. At least a tradable rally is expected; further upside depends on Iran developments and PCE. Stay nimble. x.com x.com
The Nasdaq 100 looks ready for a gap down, leaving trimming with trailing stops or sitting on the sidelines as the only way to survive. x.com
Nasdaq-100 downside could accelerate if QQQ falls below $712: dealer positioning at $700 and $690 would fuel the move unless the index reclaims its moving averages and breaks upward. July and September FOMC lows remain untouched, something that has not persisted across two consecutive meetings; taking out at least one in the next week would not be surprising. x.com
A breadth thrust and fresh buying point to at least a multi-week rise in US indices, most probably a big rally for a few months after the midterms. LS Breadth is flipping bullish as the bear count falls; more stocks are starting uptrends and first consolidations. The Nasdaq 100 is bouncing with strong breadth, and the S&P 500 looks ready to leave a massive base. The Nasdaq 100 could sell off at declining averages but should rise if broad selling does not return. x.com
Forward risks matter more than good earnings for the Nasdaq now. The index looks to be topping and has a good shot at 28,000 before a rally after the midterms; tomorrow's PCE and GDP releases are unlikely to help, and this week's lows could break. x.com x.com
The Nasdaq 100's bounce back near all-time highs on Iran deal hopes gave bulls a false sense of safety, and it is now back at the April levels it belonged at on a risk-weighted basis after ceasefire claims proved false. A 30% rise in 32 trading days on "Iran wants a deal" was never normal enough to hold. x.com x.com
Rising S&P earnings revisions and a Nasdaq valuation far below the 2000 bubble level argue against a bull trap in US large caps. Nasdaq trades at 18x forward earnings versus over 80x in 2000. Positive breadth divergences, record short ETF exposure and put volume, and semiconductors waking up add to the case. In all 19 post-midterm instances cited, markets were very green over the following 12 months. x.com x.com
Short dealer gamma could amplify SPY and QQQ selling as liquidity drains. SPY's first long-gamma strike is 745 next week, a possible magnet; QQQ has no long-gamma floor in frame, with vanna near 700. A bottom looks likelier next week than this week, with chop between. When strength returns, probably late October, easing should flood equities sooner than most expect: a strong November, stronger December and a Santa rally, with high beta leading into year-end. Its early hourly turn could reverse. … Show more
