Zynx
Bitcoin Treasury Analyst, Strategic Adviser to Falconedge
Strategy and Strive should significantly outperform Bitcoin because they amplify its upside in a bull market. Bitcoin is expected to reach at least $250,000 over the next 24 months, putting these companies among the world's best performers. High volatility is expected along the way; historic multiple expansion at Strategy is precedent, not a guarantee. x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin treasury companies with higher premiums can see greater price appreciation because buying Bitcoin at those premiums is highly accretive, if they do buy it. Last cycle, the companies demanding higher premiums saw the highest price appreciation, mostly for that reason. x.comÂ
Institutional diversification and investor preference leave room for multiple Bitcoin-treasury companies to sell digital credit. The $350T fixed-income market dwarfs today's $20B digital-credit market. Digital credit will become a multi-trillion-dollar industry within a decade, with multiple new issuers offering preferreds like Strategy's STRC and Strive's SATA in 3-5 years. If Bitcoin does well, their large holdings and structures will let them all do well and outperform it. x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin treasury companies will and should trade at a discount to NAV, since money in a double-tax structure has no reason to trade at a premium to money. Participants are harvesting the premium against each other in a zero-sum game until it flips to a discount, in bull or bear markets. Since tracking began, bitcoin rose 4.9% and Strive's bitcoin holdings 4.7%, yet Strive shares fell 14.8%, leaving bitcoin 19.7% ahead. x.com x.comÂ
High interest rates curb leveraged Bitcoin speculation while new investment opportunities compete for limited capital. AI companies are taking on heavy debt, SpaceX recently went public and Anthropic is preparing an IPO; many beaten-down AI stocks may offer a better chance of doubling than Bitcoin. With Bitcoin below $80,000, $70,000 is more likely than $90,000 from here. x.comÂ
If AI agents grow exponentially, their need for blockchain infrastructure should drive crypto adoption, making Strive and BitMine smart long-term buys as digital-asset treasury stocks if crypto rises. Automated buying and selling for users could drive exponential tokenization of finance and investing. x.comÂ
Strive is a high-risk leveraged crypto bet that is hard to justify over owning the assets in its treasury directly. Leveraged bitcoin exposure through bitcoin call options has a calculable, measurable level of leverage, whereas these treasury companies carry a lot of unknown risk. Any treasury play would have to follow the leader, Strategy. If bitcoin finally pumps, Strive should rise with it. x.comÂ
Bitcoin could gain new demand from a USD-income market worth trillions because Bitcoin-backed preferreds may offer fixed dividends above equity, real estate and bond yields even as share prices fluctuate. From IPO through October 9, STRC and SATA traded at or above $100 on just 16% and 24% of days; income stays fixed if dividends are paid. Issuers can use proceeds to buy BTC. Bitcoin and this income market could grow faster than traditional assets without those assets crashing. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's failure to decouple from AI leaves it at risk around the coming big hyperscaler earnings week. That linkage is worrying enough to prompt a 'timber' warning. x.comÂ
Strategy is buying Bitcoin high and selling it low, which is not a winning strategy. Michael Saylor says Strategy sold 3,588 BTC for $216M to fund dividends on its Digital Credit securities, leaving 843,775 BTC and $2.55B in USD reserves. x.comÂ
Debt-funded AI building is making tech stocks vulnerable to a 25-30% pullback as rates and energy prices rise. AI company borrowing reached $466B this year versus $101B a year earlier; weekly default-insurance trading on seven AI names rose from under $2B in July to over $9B in September. Keep cash for lower prices, though 30% earnings growth and a 19x market multiple argue this is not an AI bubble. x.comÂ