TJ
Stock/Options Trader, Volume at Support/Resistance, Publisher of Volume Stocks Newsletter
Keel Infrastructure, formerly Bitfarms, has upside from its pivot to AI infrastructure and a possible large AI deal. Hyperscaler interest has drawn attention, a $458M convertible raise funds the AI push, and it joined the Russell 3000 on June 29. The CEO said Keel has fielded 129 investor calls since Q1 earnings, which Stocktwits users read as a big AI deal coming. A falling-wedge breakout or a hold at the rising 200 EMA is the trigger, targeting a $7.25 reclaim and $10 if the story holds. x.com x.comÂ
Keel Infrastructure is re-rating as an AI infrastructure supplier, backed by scarce grid interconnections and a 2.2 GW power and data-center pipeline across Pennsylvania, Washington and Quebec. Its move to a US headquarters and Delaware incorporation sheds the crypto-miner label and could draw US index and institutional money. The CEO and COO keep buying shares with no insider selling, and the put/call ratio fell from a typical 0.24 to 0.13 in September as traders bet on calls. x.comÂ
KeelPoint looks undervalued, and insiders have been buying a lot of the stock recently. x.com x.comÂ
Keel Infrastructure's rally shows the market crowning it the next Hut 8 before it has any AI business, a sign of late entrants to the AI race and of where the cycle stands. The stock is up over 200% in two months without a single lease, megawatt of AI capacity or dollar of AI revenue. Keel also sold 269 bitcoin for $20 million to maintain liquidity, alongside closing a $458 million convertible notes offering. x.comÂ
Semiconductors could capture scarce spot compute's value if its forward curve holds. Compute trades in deep contango, while chip stocks price in little of that value; near-term moves are unpredictable. That makes the sector very bullish. The earlier lab-funding risk looks less acute: Anthropic should hold nearly $200B cash after its IPO and is operating-cash-flow profitable. Even with 2029 capex cuts, chips look cheap if future buyers do not default. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Keel Infrastructure has multibagger potential because a single signed hyperscaler lease would reprice the whole company. Formerly Bitfarms, it is converting entirely to AI data centers, with a 2.2GW power pipeline that includes up to 1.3GW at its Pennsylvania site. Management is targeting three hyperscaler leases by year end. x.comÂ
Keel Infrastructure's management is not at the level of the best companies in the space, and management is the most important variable. Most of these companies' value lies in future plans, not existing power assets, so being elite at securing power, deals and financing drives stock performance. CleanSpark has power assets and a Meta deal yet has not seen the AI pump others have, and the same could happen to Keel. x.comÂ
Keel Infrastructure can run fast to 10+, its all-time high, once it clears 6.6, backed by a recent multi-billion-dollar deal to scale data centers. The weekly chart shows a curl with a high-volume push into recent highs. x.comÂ
Keel Infrastructure looks likely to announce a deal within the next few weeks, which makes it a speculative gamble. x.comÂ
Bitcoin miners converting to AI infrastructure, such as IREN and Keel, are likely to be poor trades. For five years they have raised as much capital as possible and spent it on capex with no prospect of return, and the realistic base case is another dilution-fueled capex spree. They failed to generate shareholder returns even when bitcoin soared. The exception is a hard management reset, as at Core Scientific; the rest are run by the same people. Keel fell 9% on a planned $350 million offering. … Show more
Bitdeer's mining business may support meaningful value even if Bitcoin stays near $80,000, giving its speculative AI case a second engine. Its cash-contribution chart assumes 15,720 BTC mined annually at $61,051 cash cost per BTC, implying $298M at $80,000 Bitcoin, versus a roughly $2.2B valuation. Making its own SEALMINER rigs gives it more control over technology, costs and expansion. This remains a speculative buy with substantial downside risk. x.com x.comÂ