Oracle's forecast of a FY29 capex step-down and a limit on additional capital raises supports a return to all-time highs soon. Oracle says it will limit those raises to $20 billion through FY30 and reaffirmed its FY27 outlook of over $90 billion in revenue and $8.10 non-GAAP EPS. The stock remains very overcrowded. x.com  x.com 

Oracle's AI buildout looks fundable as spending peaks and cash flow turns positive. Spending is forecast to peak in FY27-28, with free cash flow positive in 2H FY28 and above $30bn in FY29, a roughly $54bn swing. New capital raising is capped at $20bn through 2030, half equity and half debt. Revenue is projected to grow from $90bn next year to $225bn+ by FY30. Bullish Oracle. x.com 

Oracle looks set to burn many more billions in cash at least into the first half of fiscal 2028. That is the less reassuring implication of Reuters' headline that Oracle expects cash flow to turn positive in the second half of that fiscal year, even though the market liked the news. x.com 

Oracle's Q1 FY2027 results undercut the bearish case, making short-term capex fears an opportunity. OCI revenue rose 121% year over year to $7.4 billion, total revenue rose 30% to a record $19.3 billion, and remaining performance obligations hit $664 billion. Oracle delivered 850 megawatts of AI capacity at 97.9% GPU utilization and closed another $30 billion of AI contracts. On the chart, holding $140-145 support in a falling wedge would set up a breakout toward $169.60, then $180-200. x.com 

Oracle's forecast turn to positive free cash flow strengthens its funding outlook. Oracle expects free cash flow to turn positive in the second half of fiscal 2028 and reach at least $30 billion in fiscal 2029 once capex peaks; it caps new capital raises through fiscal 2030 at $20 billion. The multi-model signal turned Long on Tuesday, with three of four models agreeing. x.com 

Oracle is heading for a crash toward a $70 target as it rejects its monthly 50-period moving average from below. The biggest crashes come when a stock breaks its weekly 200-period and monthly 50-period averages, retests them from below and fails. Credit backs this up: Oracle leaned on cheap debt until its CDS hit levels unseen since 2009 and it was cut to one notch above junk, then announced about $20 billion of equity issuance anyway with shares 50% off their highs. x.com  x.com 

Oracle's plan to fund its AI buildout from cash flow makes last week's financing fears look completely overdone. It expects capex to peak in FY27-28, free cash flow to turn positive in H2 FY28 and top $30B in FY29, funding growth from then. Oracle plans at most $20B in further capital raises through FY30, excluding refinancing, after an already completed $20B equity raise. Vendor financing, customer prepayments and customer-supplied hardware should reduce upfront cash needs. x.com  x.com 

Oracle looks mispriced because $11 of current consolidated earnings power puts it at 11x earnings without a breakup. It trades below its software business's value despite the highest gross retention in software; separating pre-AI OCI, AI operations and AI development makes it an obvious long. Future funding will cost more, but current leverage is no issue and all contracts are well below spot, leaving nowhere near neocloud risk. Fundamentals may not matter during panics. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oracle would be among the most exposed companies if AI infrastructure spending proves excessive, because it is committing enormous capital before the returns arrive. It burned more cash than any other S&P 500 company, with trailing free cash flow of -$28.7B and a -40% margin, as it plans $90-$95B of capex this year, partly debt-financed. The business is growing fast: quarterly revenue rose 30% to $19.3B and backlog reached $664B, up $209B in a year. x.com 

Oracle's free-cash-flow forecast suggests today's capital intensity may have an expiration date. Oracle now expects free cash flow to turn positive in the second half of FY28 and reach at least $30 billion in FY29, a possible easing of the financing risk in its AI-compute buildout. x.com  x.com