Geoffrey Fouvry
Founder & CEO of GraphCall/GraphFinancials, Financial Data Analysis
Natural gas is losing its grip on wholesale power prices as renewables take over European grids. Renewables supplied a record 60.7% of Germany's electricity consumption in January to September 2026. Once that share reaches 80%, as Spain already has, gas prices can barely affect wholesale power, which is priced at the margin on the merit order. More gas infrastructure would then matter mainly for countries that still use a lot of gas. x.com
Natural gas is becoming uneconomical for producing electricity in many places, making cartel energy economics the losing side. More efficient solar panels, battery storage and car-to-home bi-directional inverters are cutting the cost of home batteries and energy losses by 30%, with paybacks around 2.5 years in the Philippines and falling. Oil is likewise uneconomical in ground transport, 45% of its demand. Only a reunited OPEC, with the UAE back, would change that view. x.com
Natural gas prices will stay suppressed because unprecedented supply is overwhelming future AI data center demand. Record US oil drilling floods the market with associated gas regardless of price, while new gas-fired plants take three to seven years to connect amid permitting, pipeline and turbine backlogs. Storage sits above historical averages after mild winters, and tech giants favor nuclear, solar and wind, using gas mainly as backup. Relief waits until gluts clear later this decade. x.com
Equinor's earnings reacceleration and role supplying Europe's gas support a core long-term energy holding. The attached analysis estimates 129% EPS growth in 2026 and an 8.99 forward P/E, alongside strong technical momentum. Conflict involving Qatar or LNG supply disruption could increase the value of Norwegian gas to Europe. x.com
Natural gas is where the real squeeze lies if the strike on Iran's Pars region knocks out supply. South Pars/North Dome, shared with Qatar, is the world's largest gas reservoir, feeding Europe, Asia and global LNG. Europe is lean on storage into winter, Asia is fighting for every spare cargo, and the US becomes the only reliable alternative supplier. Henry Hub has been sleepy, but that changes fast with 40% of global LNG in question; the next 72 hours decide whether this is contained. x.com
Eos Energy's binding supply agreement with CAPAC Energy gives it its first foothold outside the US and widens its runway. CAPAC commits to 750 MWh with a path to 2 GWh through 2031 as Eos' exclusive DACH partner, with first projects targeting operation in late 2026. Germany's coal phase-out and 2027 capacity market drive multi-hour storage demand, and it reduces US policy risk. But it is a framework, not firm revenue: it depends on CAPAC financing, so the real signal is the first purchase order. … Show more
Natural gas faces a real but temporary 2027-2030 price spike as LNG and AI demand outrun buildout lead times, rather than Chronometer's structural, permanent rise. That mechanism is sound and little disputed on timing: processing takes 2-3 years and new frac capacity is unlikely before late 2028-2029. But Chronometer's export and depletion assumptions clash with 2025-26 data, as Haynesville output grew about 2.4 Bcf/d at roughly $4 gas. Rebalancing should follow once capacity catches up. x.com … Show more
Natural gas is undervalued because the market hasn't connected AI infrastructure spending to the power that runs it. Everyone is buying AI infrastructure while nobody is buying the power behind it, and shale depletion is real. Even so, EQT fell nearly 4% this week, a sign the AI trade's power problem is not yet priced in. x.com
Natural gas looks set for a big move, with spot Bollinger Bands the tightest since May 2021 and weekly bands the tightest since June 2021. Price sits on a notable trend line bulls could bounce from into year-end, and seasonality helps: September and October each finished green in 11 of the last 17 years. Contango makes the ETF a poor long-term holding, so this is a short-term swing setup. x.com
Natural gas faces a supply shock as Iran's retaliation reaches Qatar's Ras Laffan, the world's largest LNG export hub. After Israel struck Iran's South Pars gas field, Iranian media listed targets, and Qatar confirmed extensive damage at Ras Laffan from Iranian missiles. It ships about a fifth of global LNG and 12–14% of Europe's; losing it could double European gas prices and tighten Asian LPG. With oil back to $92 from $119, markets priced the worst as past; it may not be. x.com x.com
Natural gas is the real Middle East time bomb, not oil: Iran's retaliation knocked out 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity for three to five years. LNG terminals are costly and take years to rebuild, and producers are far fewer than in oil. Japan, South Korea, China and much of Europe rely on LNG imports for inelastic heating, and European stocks are at historic lows. If Hormuz stays shut or more Qatari plants are hit, buyers turn to the US, the top exporter, and Cheniere; prices could go vertical. … Show more
Natural gas markets face a supply shock that could make prices explode if the conflict escalates. Qatar's Ras Laffan, the backbone of global LNG, took a direct hit, disrupting about 20% of the world's natural gas in hours. It followed Israel striking Iran's South Pars field and Iran declaring Gulf energy hubs targets. x.com
