Merlijn The Trader
Bitcoin & Altcoin Trader, Founder of Profitz Academy
Circle could be one of the cleanest 2-3x opportunities over the next 12-18 months as one of the few ways to own stablecoin infrastructure. The view that CLARITY failing is automatically bad for Circle is too one-dimensional. USDC circulation hit $73.3B in Q2, up 19%, on-chain volume rose 151%, and revenue and reserve income reached about $701M. The chart shows a higher low and consolidation but needs a clean break of descending resistance. Rates and competition from Tether and banks are risks. … Show more
Circle looks coiled for expansion toward $170+ above $130 after eight months of sideways consolidation, backed by strong fundamentals. It has beaten EPS estimates four quarters in a row, with Q1 2026 revenue up 20% and EPS 40% above estimates. USDC circulation is $77 billion, up 28%, and it processed $21.5 trillion of onchain volume in Q1, up 263%. With a conditionally approved national trust bank charter and the GENIUS Act now law, it is the most compliant, regulation-ready stablecoin issuer. … Show more
Bitcoin is a better buy than Circle, whose shares trade along with Bitcoin anyway. Circle also carries policy risk, which makes it a stock not worth backing. x.comÂ
Circle looks set to turn back into an uptrend from a massive weekly base, with insider selling pressure likely exhausted. Nearly two years after the IPO, insiders and VCs who wanted to sell are probably gone, and the crypto theme is hot. x.comÂ
Circle's USDC has a temporary EU go-to-market moat. The European Banking Authority gave USDC alone 'significant' stablecoin status among 45 e-money tokens under MiCA, adding a regulatory advantage to Circle's case as a sleeping giant. x.com x.comÂ
Circle faces a senior management transition without a clear replacement after its CFO resigned abruptly, a risk not worth ignoring. Capital is better kept in the highest-conviction areas, semiconductors and AI infrastructure, though the medium-term view on bitcoin stays bullish and this call could prove wrong. x.comÂ
Circle can move much higher on passage of the Clarity Act. It made a decisive move last week and is consolidating around $100. x.comÂ
Circle is set up for a bounce toward $150 into the June 18 options expiry, because a $17.4 million wall of positive dealer exposure at the $150 strike should pull the price toward it. Spot near $113 first has to clear a small pocket of negative exposure at $114-115; once the $120 strike, with over $1 million of positive exposure, flips into support, dealer hedging should accelerate the move. x.comÂ
Circle faces real stablecoin competition as Open Standard launched its own stablecoin, Open USD, straight into USDC's lane. Circle stock fell 16.55% in 24 hours to $62, adding to last week's exit from five Russell Growth indexes. x.comÂ
Circle's first significant e-money-token classification under MiCA gives USDC a regulatory head start over 44 other notified tokens. From November 12, the EBA directly oversees its reserves, liquidity and redemptions alongside France's ACPR. That oversight strengthens Circle's compliance moat, though the ongoing cost of dual supervision could compress margins. x.com x.comÂ