Master of Crypto
Crypto Market Intelligence Publisher
Renewed buying by Michael Saylor and Tom Lee should lift Bitcoin and Ethereum again soon, with some ETF inflows as well. Their buying around the same time previously led to new highs for both, and this time should be no different. x.comÂ
Bitcoin ETF demand has snapped back despite continued Ethereum ETF outflows. Bitcoin ETFs drew $301.2M last week after $1.77B left the two products over the prior two weeks; Ethereum ETFs lost $220.7M. Bitcoin rose one year after all four previous US midterms, with the next nine days away. Per @0xCryptoChan, prior recovery tops or subtops came 78-85 days after crossing the 3-6 month holder cost-basis line. Now at day 65, the next 2-3 weeks could get wild, though ETFs have changed cycle timing. … Show more
Ethereum faces slightly higher near-term selling risk as net inflows raise Binance's sellable ETH supply. Some 55,471 ETH entered and 47,596 left, net 7,875, though both flows have slowed. If inflows persist this week with ETF outflows and high US Treasury yields, pressure could grow around the Fed decision. Rising cumulative ETH 2.0 transactions bode well for network use, not direct demand or relief today. Losing $2,280-2,300 adds downside risk; recovery needs flow and price confirmation. x.comÂ
Ether's near-term recovery is lagging Bitcoin as spot Ether ETFs lost $149 million over Monday and Tuesday while Bitcoin funds gained $286 million. Ether remains below its weekend high and 365-day average; the multi-model signal is still Long on both, with three of four models agreeing on Ether versus four of four on Bitcoin. x.comÂ
Ethereum's upside looks worth the bet because the payoff to its prior high is much larger than the downside, and buyers still respond to good news. There is roughly 16% down to $1,950 versus a little over 2x back to the prior all-time high. LIT caught a sharp bid around its US regulatory plans, and CHIP rallied 40% around a $1 million buyback; that response looks like a bull-market sign. x.comÂ
Ethereum's ETF outflows look especially troubling relative to other major crypto assets. Weekly ETH ETF outflows of $320 million exceeded Bitcoin's $228 million and Solana's $25 million combined, per Ted Pillows. x.comÂ
Bitcoin and Ethereum are cheap while US equities are overvalued, and capital flows from overvalued to undervalued assets, so the rotation into crypto has started. In May, BTC and ETH are outperforming the S&P 500, with monthly inflows of $1.51B into ETFs, $2.49B into stablecoins and $3.29B onto exchanges. The Clarity Act, a pro-Bitcoin Fed chair and a Digital Asset Reserve add support, though one final shakeout is likely before the next massive leg higher. x.com x.comÂ
Ether will rise on institutional on-chain activity, with Robinhood playing a big role. During the ETF bull run, institutions simply created investment products; in this cycle they go deeper, building out the crypto landscape and structuring it the way they want, and that takes money. x.comÂ
Ethereum's strong ecosystem is not translating into enough ETH value capture to support significant appreciation unless that changes. The Ethereum Foundation selling ETH again is frustrating; buybacks and stronger incentives for L2s to accumulate and buy back ETH could improve the token's economics. Fundstrat, which owns roughly 5% of the supply, has a huge opportunity to push for better value capture. x.com x.comÂ
Ethereum is drawing heavy institutional demand, with BlackRock's two ETH ETFs buying $1.01 billion of ETH in only 20 trading days. Over $1 billion absorbed by one asset-management giant in under a month suggests markets are turning bullish on all fronts. x.comÂ