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DeFi & Airdrop Research, On-Chain Analytics
SpaceX's slide after its IPO was obvious given a valuation that was too high, no revenue and huge share unlocks. As DeFiMidas noted, the next unlocks add about 14% of shares on September 24, another 14% on October 25 and about 28% on November 7, a large wave of new supply while the stock is already struggling after the IPO hype. x.comÂ
SpaceX's post-IPO selloff looks like an accumulation phase, not the end, much as Nvidia's was after its 1999 IPO. Nvidia's hype faded and the stock traded sideways while institutions quietly built positions before one of Wall Street's biggest runs. SpaceX is following the same sequence of IPO, retail FOMO and a sharp flush, and its price is now compressing as shares move from emotional to patient buyers. x.comÂ
SpaceX shares are worth hedging while everyone is hyped, with roughly $400B of unlocks still coming and the Anthropic IPO ahead. Per the FT, via @DeItaone, SpaceX is looking to raise $40B in Apollo-led financing to buy Nvidia chips. x.comÂ
SpaceX shares face pressure as more than $100 billion worth of stock unlocks today, with the chart already looking weak heading into the release. x.comÂ
SpaceX's projected growth is challenging the earlier overvaluation case, though the reassessment is still in progress. A VJN.ai chart projects revenue 273.3% higher by Q4 2027, even as the company is valued at $2 trillion. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's large share unlock magnified the selling-pressure risk. The biggest unlock amounted to 30% of its float. x.comÂ
SpaceX faces near-term selling risk from an insider-share unlock despite a remarkably strong quarter. Tomorrow, 28% of its insider lockup pool, nearly 10% of all shares, becomes eligible for sale. Revenue reached $14.6 billion, up 161%, with $4.4 billion in net profit; $7.6 billion in AI revenue now exceeds Starlink and other connectivity revenue combined. x.comÂ
SpaceX's 912 million-share unlock was a supply event rather than a verdict on the business, and demand has absorbed it. AI segment revenue grew 213% sequentially and adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $1.15B from a $609M loss, showing Wall Street pays the beneficiaries of AI capex. The same float expansion should raise SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 weight at the September rebalance, so with insider selling behind it, passive buying is still to come. x.comÂ
SpaceX's valuation and upcoming share unlocks warrant caution, even after the stock rallied into October. About a trillion dollars of shares is unlocking, and VC funds and endowments mostly plan to recycle proceeds into venture or other equities now that SpaceX is public. Each unlock passing without much damage may breed complacency, which is when the biggest surprises hit; a rally through December would be even more surprising. The company itself is appealing. x.com x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX was not a buy at its IPO because of its share unlock schedule, and that call is now playing out. Per @WatcherGuru, the stock has hit a post-IPO low below $140. x.comÂ
SpaceX shares look tempting as the lockup partially ends, with Finviz showing almost a 30% short float. There is no sign of a rush to sell at these prices: many chased the stock at $200, and very few want it in the low $100s. x.comÂ
SpaceX's heavy spending and risk of further borrowing make its sharp stock rally hard to square with weakening debt and a huge lock-up expiration ahead. Bloomberg reports its bonds weakened and credit spreads widened despite earnings above estimates. Talk of a potential Tesla acquisition is also in the air. x.comÂ
