TJ
Stock/Options Trader, Volume at Support/Resistance, Publisher of Volume Stocks Newsletter
AVAX One Technology's management is backing its own stock, and the shares just broke a multi-month descending trendline on five times normal volume. It has repurchased 85,724 shares at about $4.28 since June 30, with about $35.5M left on its $40M buyback. Its treasury holds 14.09M AVAX tokens, alongside staking yield, bitcoin mining and data centers. $5.50 is the trigger level. x.comÂ
Avalanche's onchain asset growth has not yet translated into demand for AVAX itself. Funds and stocks living on the chain, such as a Goldman Sachs Treasury fund or Dinari's US stocks, are not the same as people buying the token. x.comÂ
Avalanche's AVAX is a useless token with no revenue and no reason to hold it. @WazzCrypto calls its price action a sobering preview for most layer-1 tokens. x.comÂ
AVAX treasury company AVAT has warned the SEC it may not survive the year, because its business has no strong revenue source beyond holding AVAX. It spent $265M on AVAX now worth $123M, pledged 7.8M of its 13.8M AVAX as loan collateral, and lost $26.78M last quarter against $2.06M of staking revenue. Six weeks after a $675M Nasdaq debut it is worth $29.8M, and any further AVAX decline raises its financial risk. x.comÂ
Avalanche Treasury Corp.'s SPAC structure is built for dilution and PIPE exits, not durable capital, and it listed at the worst possible time. It fell 38% on its first day, from about $3 to $1.85, while AVAX sits at five-year lows, 95% below its 2021 peak, yet the company still plans to buy over $1B more AVAX. The SpaceX IPO is draining capital, Strategy is selling, ETFs are bleeding outflows and crypto is in the down leg of its four-year cycle. x.comÂ
Avalanche is becoming indispensable infrastructure the way AWS did, yet the token sits 94% below its high because the market has no category for it yet. RWA liquidity reached $761 million, up 78% in 90 days, with BlackRock, Janus Henderson, Franklin Templeton, Apollo and Galaxy choosing it independently. Progmat is migrating $2.9 billion of Japanese security tokens to an Avalanche L1, and AI-agent payment networks like Kite, backed by PayPal and Coinbase Ventures, run on it. A long-term bet. … Show more
Keel Infrastructure's rally shows the market crowning it the next Hut 8 before it has any AI business, a sign of late entrants to the AI race and of where the cycle stands. The stock is up over 200% in two months without a single lease, megawatt of AI capacity or dollar of AI revenue. Keel also sold 269 bitcoin for $20 million to maintain liquidity, alongside closing a $458 million convertible notes offering. x.comÂ
Bitcoin treasury companies will and should trade at a discount to NAV, since money in a double-tax structure has no reason to trade at a premium to money. Participants are harvesting the premium against each other in a zero-sum game until it flips to a discount, in bull or bear markets. Since tracking began, bitcoin rose 4.9% and Strive's bitcoin holdings 4.7%, yet Strive shares fell 14.8%, leaving bitcoin 19.7% ahead. x.com x.comÂ
