VirtualBacon
Crypto Investor & Educator, Macro Analysis
Avalanche's AVAX is a useless token with no revenue and no reason to hold it. @WazzCrypto calls its price action a sobering preview for most layer-1 tokens. x.comÂ
AVAX One Technology's management is backing its own stock, and the shares just broke a multi-month descending trendline on five times normal volume. It has repurchased 85,724 shares at about $4.28 since June 30, with about $35.5M left on its $40M buyback. Its treasury holds 14.09M AVAX tokens, alongside staking yield, bitcoin mining and data centers. $5.50 is the trigger level. x.comÂ
Avalanche is becoming indispensable infrastructure the way AWS did, yet the token sits 94% below its high because the market has no category for it yet. RWA liquidity reached $761 million, up 78% in 90 days, with BlackRock, Janus Henderson, Franklin Templeton, Apollo and Galaxy choosing it independently. Progmat is migrating $2.9 billion of Japanese security tokens to an Avalanche L1, and AI-agent payment networks like Kite, backed by PayPal and Coinbase Ventures, run on it. A long-term bet. … Show more
AVAX treasury company AVAT has warned the SEC it may not survive the year, because its business has no strong revenue source beyond holding AVAX. It spent $265M on AVAX now worth $123M, pledged 7.8M of its 13.8M AVAX as loan collateral, and lost $26.78M last quarter against $2.06M of staking revenue. Six weeks after a $675M Nasdaq debut it is worth $29.8M, and any further AVAX decline raises its financial risk. x.comÂ
Avalanche Treasury Corp.'s SPAC structure is built for dilution and PIPE exits, not durable capital, and it listed at the worst possible time. It fell 38% on its first day, from about $3 to $1.85, while AVAX sits at five-year lows, 95% below its 2021 peak, yet the company still plans to buy over $1B more AVAX. The SpaceX IPO is draining capital, Strategy is selling, ETFs are bleeding outflows and crypto is in the down leg of its four-year cycle. x.comÂ
Avalanche looks bullish because real applications in payments, real-world assets, financial infrastructure and enterprise systems are already in production on it, per @encycloplydia. x.comÂ
Tokens with real value capture, disciplined supply, usage-driven demand and holder alignment are worth owning; narrative tokens without them are tactical trades. Bitcoin and Ethereum stay the core, with Aave, Pendle, Bittensor and Virtuals also held; Virtuals is a higher-conviction AI pick at the center of a growing agent economy, though its value capture must improve. Arbitrum, Sui, Avalanche, Chainlink and Uniswap act like leveraged beta, with no floor when liquidity leaves. x.comÂ
Aave stands to benefit if the SEC grants a rumored tokenization exemption, since the TAM for DeFi assets with cash flows and long-term teams would become the whole of finance. The rumored relief would let tokenized securities trade with only a transfer agent, with no broker-dealer license or exchange rules for U.S. retail and foreign investors, which would be massive for onchain finance. Aave founder Stani isn't playing around, and some charts will go bananas if it drops. x.comÂ
Aave is one of a handful of tokens likely to attract traditional allocators such as tech hedge funds, wealthy individuals and family offices, given its fundamentals, longevity and addressable market. Per Aave founder Stani Kulechov, Coinbase tokenized stocks are now live on Aave V4 on Base, letting users borrow USDC against them as Aave aims to bring the $200 trillion global equities market onchain. x.comÂ