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Web3 Founder of Exponential/Lofi, Trader & Writer
Ethereum is where institutions and smart capital keep their value in DeFi. Its TVL is nearly double the roughly $23 billion combined on BNB Chain, Solana, Tron, Base and Bitcoin, because its collateral is deepest, apps are battle-tested, stablecoin rails are strongest and large capital can move securely. Fundstrat and BitMine could be among the biggest winners in the second half of the decade. x.com
Ethereum's bottom is in as Wall Street's chosen chain positions for the stock market's move onchain, even as a wave of senior Ethereum Foundation departures tests leadership continuity. Recent exits include Tim Beiko, Barnabé Monnot, Josh Stark and co-executive director Tomasz Stańczak, a concentrated loss of knowledge while Solana gains momentum. Vitalik Buterin says the Foundation remains robust and sufficiently decentralized, and Ethereum was designed to outlive any single foundation. x.com x.com
Ethereum's deeper capital liquidity favors a 65% ETH weight, while Solana's stronger trading and consumer activity warrants 35% SOL in a long-term allocation. At ~4.8 times Solana's market cap, Ethereum holds ~8.4 times its DeFi TVL and ~9.1 times its stablecoin liquidity. Solana leads in chain fees, app revenue and DEX volume, but app revenue need not accrue to SOL. Sustained growth in Solana's stablecoins, TVL and revenue could change the weights. x.com
ETH is undervalued because collateral and staking create demand L1 fees miss. Aave V3 has 2.2M WETH supplied and 1.75M borrowed on Ethereum. Yet Base reportedly paid Ethereum ~$15K for September data publishing versus $711K to the Optimism Collective, showing weak L1 capture. Absolute stablecoin growth matters more than share, but is not itself ETH demand. The case strengthens when activity creates sustained demand to hold, borrow against or stake ETH, or raises fee burn relative to issuance. … Show more
Ethereum faces slightly higher near-term selling risk as net inflows raise Binance's sellable ETH supply. Some 55,471 ETH entered and 47,596 left, net 7,875, though both flows have slowed. If inflows persist this week with ETF outflows and high US Treasury yields, pressure could grow around the Fed decision. Rising cumulative ETH 2.0 transactions bode well for network use, not direct demand or relief today. Losing $2,280-2,300 adds downside risk; recovery needs flow and price confirmation. x.com
Ethereum is becoming the backbone of onchain finance, driving structural institutional demand, and lower prices are a gift. Institutions such as ETFs, corporates and reserves control about 10.7% of ETH supply, corporate treasuries 6%, and staking locks up 29-30%. Ethereum holds 55-56%+ of the tokenized real-world asset market and 74% of tokenized US Treasuries, with BlackRock, JPMorgan, PayPal and Deutsche Bank building on it. The weekly chart keeps making higher lows. x.com
Ethereum's upside looks worth the bet because the payoff to its prior high is much larger than the downside, and buyers still respond to good news. There is roughly 16% down to $1,950 versus a little over 2x back to the prior all-time high. LIT caught a sharp bid around its US regulatory plans, and CHIP rallied 40% around a $1 million buyback; that response looks like a bull-market sign. x.com
ETH's claim to be DeFi's money is weakening as stablecoins become the real unit of account, even on Ethereum. Aave's TVL on Ethereum has shifted from ETH toward stablecoins over the past three years. That undercuts @ryanberckmans's argument that ETH is a store of value accruing value from utility and confidence rather than cash flows. x.com
Ethereum is always cheap in an exponentially growing DeFi industry because it is the backbone of $50 trillion of stablecoin transactions, a real business. It has 20,000 developers and a better programming environment than any other layer 1, while Bitcoin is valuable mainly for being the first and the biggest. x.com
ETH looks undervalued even with all the capital already on Ethereum, because its credible neutrality draws asset issuers and institutions. A post the author replies to cites ex-BlackRock VP @BitcoinJesusETH: credible neutrality is TradFi's counterparty-risk minimization, which Ethereum has built for over a decade, and Ethereum holds the lion's share of tokenization, stablecoin adoption and the coming agentic economy. x.com
Ethereum's strong ecosystem is not translating into enough ETH value capture to support significant appreciation unless that changes. The Ethereum Foundation selling ETH again is frustrating; buybacks and stronger incentives for L2s to accumulate and buy back ETH could improve the token's economics. Fundstrat, which owns roughly 5% of the supply, has a huge opportunity to push for better value capture. x.com x.com
Ethereum's layer-2 networks are insanely bullish long term because they give every major institution a substrate to build on while reinforcing the use of ETH. There is no good reason to build a modular chain anywhere else, and today's very low fees to do so, without running your own consensus, are a feature, not a bug. Expect many more L2s in the next few years. The L2 roadmap did pull focus from L1 scaling, which is still needed, but zk proving will get there. x.com x.com
