Joestar
Crypto Analyst, DeFi Analytics Tools Builder, Perpetuals & Tokenization
ETH's claim to be DeFi's money is weakening as stablecoins become the real unit of account, even on Ethereum. Aave's TVL on Ethereum has shifted from ETH toward stablecoins over the past three years. That undercuts @ryanberckmans's argument that ETH is a store of value accruing value from utility and confidence rather than cash flows. x.com
Ether is losing ground as DeFi's unit of account as activity shifts toward stablecoins, undercutting the case that ETH is money. Even memecoin trading on Solana or Ethereum is done in stables rather than ETH or SOL. Most users care more about opportunity than censorship resistance, so long-term capital is likelier to flow to L2s than to ETH, and institutions may capture future network effects that Ethereum loses precisely because it is too neutral. x.com x.com x.com
Ethereum shows that a winning network and a winning asset are not the same trade. Ethereum dominates stablecoins, real-world assets and DeFi settlement, yet ETH is still down 60% from its all-time high. The chain scaled, but the economics went elsewhere, and Base may be the most successful Ethereum product ever built, which is precisely the problem for the token. x.com
Ethereum faces slightly higher near-term selling risk as net inflows raise Binance's sellable ETH supply. Some 55,471 ETH entered and 47,596 left, net 7,875, though both flows have slowed. If inflows persist this week with ETF outflows and high US Treasury yields, pressure could grow around the Fed decision. Rising cumulative ETH 2.0 transactions bode well for network use, not direct demand or relief today. Losing $2,280-2,300 adds downside risk; recovery needs flow and price confirmation. x.com
ETH is undervalued because collateral and staking create demand L1 fees miss. Aave V3 has 2.2M WETH supplied and 1.75M borrowed on Ethereum. Yet Base reportedly paid Ethereum ~$15K for September data publishing versus $711K to the Optimism Collective, showing weak L1 capture. Absolute stablecoin growth matters more than share, but is not itself ETH demand. The case strengthens when activity creates sustained demand to hold, borrow against or stake ETH, or raises fee burn relative to issuance. … Show more
Ethereum feels weak with no clear catalyst, despite an appealing story of institutional adoption for real utility and infrastructure. The crypto craze may have petered out after about 15 years, and bitter memories of losses from counterparty blowups such as Voyager and FTX may never fade. x.com
Tokenization and demand for real economics make DeFi lending, spot and yield tokens extremely appealing on risk-reward. This unrivaled trend will grow DeFi value 50x or more over multiple years, and fast. The altcoin bear market is forcing better token structures: Ethena, Uniswap and Aave are improving unit economics, Chainlink to some extent. Battle-tested Pendle and Morpho, with efficient businesses and institutional ties, will re-rate hard. A DeFi Summer return is nearly certain. x.com
Ethereum's growing stablecoin base contrasts with ether trading at roughly half its November 2021 price. The network holds $146 billion in stablecoins, up from $83 billion on November 10, 2021. x.com
Ethereum's strong ecosystem is not translating into enough ETH value capture to support significant appreciation unless that changes. The Ethereum Foundation selling ETH again is frustrating; buybacks and stronger incentives for L2s to accumulate and buy back ETH could improve the token's economics. Fundstrat, which owns roughly 5% of the supply, has a huge opportunity to push for better value capture. x.com x.com
Ethereum's liquidity is falling further behind Bitcoin's. ETH now has just 35–45% of Bitcoin's liquidity, versus at least 60% in 2025, with median ETH liquidity around $13–14M. x.com
Ethereum is where institutions and smart capital keep their value in DeFi. Its TVL is nearly double the roughly $23 billion combined on BNB Chain, Solana, Tron, Base and Bitcoin, because its collateral is deepest, apps are battle-tested, stablecoin rails are strongest and large capital can move securely. Fundstrat and BitMine could be among the biggest winners in the second half of the decade. x.com
Ethereum's ETF outflows look especially troubling relative to other major crypto assets. Weekly ETH ETF outflows of $320 million exceeded Bitcoin's $228 million and Solana's $25 million combined, per Ted Pillows. x.com
