Elite
On-Chain Crypto & DeFi Research, Alpha Threads
Ethereum shows that a winning network and a winning asset are not the same trade. Ethereum dominates stablecoins, real-world assets and DeFi settlement, yet ETH is still down 60% from its all-time high. The chain scaled, but the economics went elsewhere, and Base may be the most successful Ethereum product ever built, which is precisely the problem for the token. x.com
ETH's value accrual is structurally weakened because Ethereum's L2 roadmap pushed activity off the main chain, and upcoming hard forks don't fix it. Dencun slashed L2 fees and Pectra added blob space, lowering L1 fees and ETH burn and raising net supply growth, a loop that worsens as L2s grow. JPMorgan doubts Glamsterdam and Hegota change this. ETH needs L1 fee activity to return or a new demand model beyond burn; both are possible, neither is certain. x.com
Ethereum's strong ecosystem is not translating into enough ETH value capture to support significant appreciation unless that changes. The Ethereum Foundation selling ETH again is frustrating; buybacks and stronger incentives for L2s to accumulate and buy back ETH could improve the token's economics. Fundstrat, which owns roughly 5% of the supply, has a huge opportunity to push for better value capture. x.com x.com
ETH's claim to be DeFi's money is weakening as stablecoins become the real unit of account, even on Ethereum. Aave's TVL on Ethereum has shifted from ETH toward stablecoins over the past three years. That undercuts @ryanberckmans's argument that ETH is a store of value accruing value from utility and confidence rather than cash flows. x.com
ETH is undervalued because collateral and staking create demand L1 fees miss. Aave V3 has 2.2M WETH supplied and 1.75M borrowed on Ethereum. Yet Base reportedly paid Ethereum ~$15K for September data publishing versus $711K to the Optimism Collective, showing weak L1 capture. Absolute stablecoin growth matters more than share, but is not itself ETH demand. The case strengthens when activity creates sustained demand to hold, borrow against or stake ETH, or raises fee burn relative to issuance. … Show more
Ethereum faces slightly higher near-term selling risk as net inflows raise Binance's sellable ETH supply. Some 55,471 ETH entered and 47,596 left, net 7,875, though both flows have slowed. If inflows persist this week with ETF outflows and high US Treasury yields, pressure could grow around the Fed decision. Rising cumulative ETH 2.0 transactions bode well for network use, not direct demand or relief today. Losing $2,280-2,300 adds downside risk; recovery needs flow and price confirmation. x.com
Ether's price is falling while open interest rises, meaning leverage is building into the dump, a setup that tends to end badly for longs. x.com
Ethereum's case rests on keeping and widening its lead in real-world assets, the market it has spent the last couple of years positioning itself to own. It needs to keep dominating RWA DeFi TVL, and if the RWA thesis plays out, Ethereum is where that value should settle. x.com
Ether's distribution is its biggest weakness, because proof-of-stake enshrines the Cantillon effect and poorly distributed moneys always fail. Proof-of-work spreads supply through forced selling by miners, who have real costs. Ethereum's long proof-of-work history does make its distribution unusual among chains that started as proof-of-stake, and @lex_node raises fair points, but distribution would be a major reason if Ethereum fails. x.com x.com
ETH should stay stuck for a long time because of the many trapped buyers created by BitMine and Tom Lee. Nearly every use case for it has been tried since 2019, and tokenization is more exciting than ETH itself. x.com
Ethereum's growing stablecoin base contrasts with ether trading at roughly half its November 2021 price. The network holds $146 billion in stablecoins, up from $83 billion on November 10, 2021. x.com
Ethereum's liquidity is falling further behind Bitcoin's. ETH now has just 35–45% of Bitcoin's liquidity, versus at least 60% in 2025, with median ETH liquidity around $13–14M. x.com
