Froggy
Crypto Analyst, Trader at Wallet
ETH's ETF inflows holding up matter most, suggesting the latest drop is derivatives repricing, not weaker spot demand. Per @Eliteonchain, after Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech lifted September hike odds from 35% to 60%, $488M of crypto positions were liquidated, mostly longs, yet ETH ETFs still drew $102M, their tenth straight day of inflows. A similar flush in August 2024 was followed by ETF-driven spot demand reasserting itself. x.com
Ethereum faces slightly higher near-term selling risk as net inflows raise Binance's sellable ETH supply. Some 55,471 ETH entered and 47,596 left, net 7,875, though both flows have slowed. If inflows persist this week with ETF outflows and high US Treasury yields, pressure could grow around the Fed decision. Rising cumulative ETH 2.0 transactions bode well for network use, not direct demand or relief today. Losing $2,280-2,300 adds downside risk; recovery needs flow and price confirmation. x.com
Bitcoin keeps falling and Ether even more so because liquidity is being sought and there is distress in the system. Strategy is a target for put options. x.com
ETH is undervalued because collateral and staking create demand L1 fees miss. Aave V3 has 2.2M WETH supplied and 1.75M borrowed on Ethereum. Yet Base reportedly paid Ethereum ~$15K for September data publishing versus $711K to the Optimism Collective, showing weak L1 capture. Absolute stablecoin growth matters more than share, but is not itself ETH demand. The case strengthens when activity creates sustained demand to hold, borrow against or stake ETH, or raises fee burn relative to issuance. … Show more
Ether's price is falling while open interest rises, meaning leverage is building into the dump, a setup that tends to end badly for longs. x.com
Ethereum's ETF outflows look especially troubling relative to other major crypto assets. Weekly ETH ETF outflows of $320 million exceeded Bitcoin's $228 million and Solana's $25 million combined, per Ted Pillows. x.com
Ethereum is a buy, stake and hold as institutions accumulate and supply tightens. Spot ETF holdings rose from 3% to 10% of supply in a year, treasury vehicles keep stacking, 30% of ETH is staked, exchange balances keep falling and fee burns offset issuance in busy periods. Most stablecoin and tokenized-asset activity routes through Ethereum and its L2s, and staking pays about 3%. Institutional tokenization will happen, perhaps outside the US first. The Wave 3 target is $9,200. x.com
Ethereum's strong ecosystem is not translating into enough ETH value capture to support significant appreciation unless that changes. The Ethereum Foundation selling ETH again is frustrating; buybacks and stronger incentives for L2s to accumulate and buy back ETH could improve the token's economics. Fundstrat, which owns roughly 5% of the supply, has a huge opportunity to push for better value capture. x.com x.com
Ethereum looks likely to move down toward a major liquidity cluster around $2,615, since there is very little liquidity above. x.com
Ether's near-term recovery is lagging Bitcoin as spot Ether ETFs lost $149 million over Monday and Tuesday while Bitcoin funds gained $286 million. Ether remains below its weekend high and 365-day average; the multi-model signal is still Long on both, with three of four models agreeing on Ether versus four of four on Bitcoin. x.com
ETH's claim to be DeFi's money is weakening as stablecoins become the real unit of account, even on Ethereum. Aave's TVL on Ethereum has shifted from ETH toward stablecoins over the past three years. That undercuts @ryanberckmans's argument that ETH is a store of value accruing value from utility and confidence rather than cash flows. x.com