Ethena's ENA may rally after its final investor unlock once the market realizes there will not be much selling impact. The unlock follows Ethena's big buyback and fee switch announcement. x.com
Anp🅰️nman
AST SpaceMobile Research
ENA's unlock-day selling fear was largely priced in, and supply pressure is easing as recurring investor unlocks end. The foundation bought out locked positions of large investors who had been selling, bar one wallet, and investor unlocks end now rather than in March 2028. USDe kept growing after ENA incentives ended. Buybacks taking 5% of gross revenue start at $7.5 billion of USDe supply, versus about $4.91 billion now, so growth still has to do the work. x.com
Ethena's limited 12% vault makes Luna comparisons unconvincing. It is capped at 4.5 million and restricted to Pro and VIP users; ENA's fear-driven dip should look like a free buying opportunity in a few days. x.com
Ethena's ENA token looks stretched relative to current earnings, even if USDe itself is solvent and functional. A post the author replies to notes that the delta-neutral share of USDe backing fell from 93% at the start of 2025 to 11%, funding rates compressed, and sUSDe's yield dropped from 27% at the peak to 3.20% as the protocol pivoted to institutional lending. A sound stablecoin does not make the token cheap. x.com
Ethena is one of the most reflexive assets as yields return: more trading lifts yields, which drives growth of its USDe stablecoin. Its Binance partnership extends the basis trade into equity perpetuals, which Ethena says expands its collateral market from $2.5 trillion of crypto to over $150 trillion of real-world assets. USDe is one of only four stablecoins with real scale and distribution, and most liquid allocators are meaningfully underweight after excessive bearishness in 2025-26. x.com … Show more
Ethena's token could start capturing the protocol's fees if a live governance vote approves programmatic ENA buybacks once USDe supply reaches $7.5B, from about $4.04B now. Ethena earns about $183M in annualized fees, yet almost none reaches ENA, leaving it near 9x price-to-fees but about 4,900x price-to-sales. Equity-perp basis trades, a roughly $6B open-interest market paying 15-20% funding, give USDe a second way to scale. ENA is up 104% this month, so some of this is priced in. x.com
Ethena's bull case is back as the basis trade returns, and Monad is a bet on its team pumping the price before unlocks in two months. ENA has doubled from its bottom but is still about 90% below its top, so if the market stays bullish and that case holds, the token is free here and dips are for buying. Monad is not a fundamentals bet; DonAlt, fresh off calling last year's top and a recent bottom, backs it as his only altcoin besides ETH, a catalyst big enough to send it multiples higher. x.com … Show more
Ethena's expansion of its basis trade into equities could power a comeback. Per Ethena, Binance is its first venue for extending the trade to equity perpetuals, widening the collateral market from $2.5 trillion of crypto to $150 trillion+ of real-world assets. Binance equity basis has averaged about 11%+ annualized over six months, open interest has grown about 30% a month over the last three, and Binance gives eligible delta-neutral accounts lower auto-deleveraging priority. x.com
Ethena's governance proposal for revenue buybacks supports ENA's value. The Ethena Foundation also bought out locked tokens from major seed investors that sold ENA within the last nine months, and agreed with Ethena Labs that the protocol's IP and accrued value belong exclusively to the Foundation, governed by token holders with no residual cash flow to equity investors. x.com
Ethena is the highest-conviction pick in this altcoin basket, followed by Worldcoin with good conviction. Plasma's dead-cat bounce can be sharp, LayerZero's team will eventually run out of tokens to sell, and DoubleZero is a crime-conviction bet. x.com
Ethena's partnership with Binance to extend its basis trade into equity perpetuals is massive news for the token. Per Ethena, it expands USDe's addressable collateral from $2.5 trillion of crypto to over $150 trillion of real-world assets, using tokenized bStocks hedged with Binance equity perps. Binance equity basis has averaged about 11% annualized over six months with open interest up about 30% a month, and Ethena expects the market to far exceed the $15B+ of crypto perps it won last cycle. … Show more