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Altcoin & Memecoin Commentary
ENA's unlock-day selling fear was largely priced in, and supply pressure is easing as recurring investor unlocks end. The foundation bought out locked positions of large investors who had been selling, bar one wallet, and investor unlocks end now rather than in March 2028. USDe kept growing after ENA incentives ended. Buybacks taking 5% of gross revenue start at $7.5 billion of USDe supply, versus about $4.91 billion now, so growth still has to do the work. x.com
Ethena earns more as heated markets push traders to pay up for leverage, and that growth can eventually flow to ENA. It holds coins and shorts matching perps, collecting funding while price moves largely offset, and its Binance partnership brings the same trade to stocks. That income funds USDe staking rewards, which could draw more money into USDe, and Ethena's buyback framework directs a share of revenue to ENA purchases once USDe supply reaches $7.5B. x.com
Ethena's ENA may rally after its final investor unlock once the market realizes there will not be much selling impact. The unlock follows Ethena's big buyback and fee switch announcement. x.com
Ethena's token could start capturing the protocol's fees if a live governance vote approves programmatic ENA buybacks once USDe supply reaches $7.5B, from about $4.04B now. Ethena earns about $183M in annualized fees, yet almost none reaches ENA, leaving it near 9x price-to-fees but about 4,900x price-to-sales. Equity-perp basis trades, a roughly $6B open-interest market paying 15-20% funding, give USDe a second way to scale. ENA is up 104% this month, so some of this is priced in. x.com
Ethena's ENA token looks stretched relative to current earnings, even if USDe itself is solvent and functional. A post the author replies to notes that the delta-neutral share of USDe backing fell from 93% at the start of 2025 to 11%, funding rates compressed, and sUSDe's yield dropped from 27% at the peak to 3.20% as the protocol pivoted to institutional lending. A sound stablecoin does not make the token cheap. x.com
Ethena's limited 12% vault makes Luna comparisons unconvincing. It is capped at 4.5 million and restricted to Pro and VIP users; ENA's fear-driven dip should look like a free buying opportunity in a few days. x.com
Ethena is one of the most reflexive assets as yields return: more trading lifts yields, which drives growth of its USDe stablecoin. Its Binance partnership extends the basis trade into equity perpetuals, which Ethena says expands its collateral market from $2.5 trillion of crypto to over $150 trillion of real-world assets. USDe is one of only four stablecoins with real scale and distribution, and most liquid allocators are meaningfully underweight after excessive bearishness in 2025-26. x.com … Show more
Ethena's expansion of its basis trade into equities could power a comeback. Per Ethena, Binance is its first venue for extending the trade to equity perpetuals, widening the collateral market from $2.5 trillion of crypto to $150 trillion+ of real-world assets. Binance equity basis has averaged about 11%+ annualized over six months, open interest has grown about 30% a month over the last three, and Binance gives eligible delta-neutral accounts lower auto-deleveraging priority. x.com
Ethena's governance proposal for revenue buybacks supports ENA's value. The Ethena Foundation also bought out locked tokens from major seed investors that sold ENA within the last nine months, and agreed with Ethena Labs that the protocol's IP and accrued value belong exclusively to the Foundation, governed by token holders with no residual cash flow to equity investors. x.com
A deeper, more liquid perpetual-futures market should expand Ethena's USDe funding reserves, making StablecoinX the best risk/reward way to gain exposure to securities tokenization and growing perps. ICE and trade[XYZ] plan a dedicated U.S. market, subject to CFTC approval. StablecoinX's updated fully diluted NAV is $20.41 versus a $9.15 share price, a 55% discount. x.com x.com x.com
Ethena's bull case is back as the basis trade returns, and Monad is a bet on its team pumping the price before unlocks in two months. ENA has doubled from its bottom but is still about 90% below its top, so if the market stays bullish and that case holds, the token is free here and dips are for buying. Monad is not a fundamentals bet; DonAlt, fresh off calling last year's top and a recent bottom, backs it as his only altcoin besides ETH, a catalyst big enough to send it multiples higher. x.com … Show more
StablecoinX gains exposure to Ethena Pay's potential fee-switch income through ENA. At 10M Pay users with $2,500 average balances, the model shows $250M a year in fees; it is early and faces a crowded market. Ethena's credit-arbitrage strategy has generated $1bn of profit with LP capital and very small risk above T-bills. ENA takes 20% carry above a market-implied, noncontractual LP preferred return; capacity is growing but not unlimited. x.com x.com
