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Web3 Founder of Exponential/Lofi, Trader & Writer
Cardano may be the most overvalued asset, with a tiny on-chain economy relative to its $9B market cap. TVL is $128M, daily DEX volume $1.3M, stablecoins $26M and active addresses about 17,000. At some point the market must decide whether it is valuing an ecosystem or just a memory from prior cycles. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Cardano is large-cap vapour trending toward zero: a $7B fully diluted valuation is utterly ridiculous for a legacy infrastructure project that has delivered nothing. Everyone holding for the last six years is at a loss, and the next cycle is unlikely to repump it because retail now has more attractive frontier equities to chase. Long revenue-producing crypto assets with value accrual and short vapour infrastructure remains a good long-term trade. x.com x.comÂ
Cardano remains mediocre despite claiming to be the best: its maximum theoretical throughput is about 18 TPS while usage is near 0.2 TPS. Its scaling upgrade has been awaited for over a decade, with Input Endorsers promised in 2017 and Leios announced in 2022, and even once released it will be uncompetitive against chains with 40k+ TPS and subsecond block times. Leios should prioritize speed over capacity; Cardano is improving, but actions speak louder than words. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Cardano may be preparing for a bigger move than many expect: it is still holding the same level it held during the last bear market while whales keep accumulating in the background. x.comÂ
Cardano is in trouble when its founder publicly questions how to solve its problems. After TapTools shut down, Charles Hoskinson warned that more ADA projects are going to die and that it will be a tough year for the project. x.comÂ
Cardano is hollow, with high costs and low usage, and the shutdown of TapTools, one of its main data and infrastructure platforms, is a leading indicator that apps will follow. It sold decentralization and research for years while deferring speed, UX and incentives, lacking the builder culture that carried Ethereum and Solana. Its value has fallen from about $95B to roughly $8B, and founder Charles Hoskinson warned more Cardano DeFi projects could die in late 2026, per Coin Bureau. x.com x.com … Show more
Cardano isn't dead and can at least triple from here, since bitcoin still has at least a double left to run. ADA probably won't beat most coins this cycle. x.com x.comÂ
Cardano is getting smoked because it pumped on the L1 narrative and hasn't been cool since 2021; even if that narrative catches a bid again, newer projects and narratives may pass it by. x.comÂ
Growing onchain stock activity makes cryptocurrencies less compelling even as blockchains succeed. Active RWA TVL in DeFi rose from $15M to $332M in ten months, over 20x. Stocks are set to eat crypto on its own turf, not the other way around. x.comÂ
EigenLayer's restaking never had a revenue model, only a story, and EIGEN emissions have filled the gap as dilution dressed up as yield. TVL fell from $21.8B in August 2025 to $4.78B. Per DeFiLlama it has $51.2M in annualized fees, zero protocol revenue and $51.58M in yearly incentives, versus Lido's $70.97M annual earnings on $4.27M of incentives. ELIP-12 points the right way, but a July 1 unlock arrives before AVS revenue can absorb it. The model must now show the revenue. x.comÂ
Hedera's $4 billion market cap is not backed by real usage. The network generated $0 in revenue over the last 24 hours, and HBAR's price is moving on partnership announcements rather than on-chain activity. With no revenue and no demand, the valuation is hopium with a chart attached, not adoption. x.comÂ
