kook
Crypto Trader, Creator of KookLetter
NEAR's privacy narrative has fallen apart, because NEAR Intents can and does freeze users' funds based on centralized decisions. That makes it neither private, permissionless nor decentralized: like a bank account, the operator or government can see transactions and shut users down, while the transparent ledger is lost. Bitcoin and Monero make sense; NEAR's 'private' marketing looks deliberately disingenuous and aimed at pumping the token. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
NEAR can never be money, so any monetary or privacy premium ascribed to the token will flow to permissionless neutral protocols like Zcash and, to a lesser degree, Monero. NEAR's freezing of funds from the Bitget hack was the right business decision, but it shows that programmability creates governance surface area that is antithetical to money. The NEAR chain made about $150k in 30 days, Intents $1.7M and perps $61k, an insane multiple for something that isn't money. x.com x.com x.comÂ
NEAR's $2.4 billion market cap already prices it as a major AI and apps layer, so the success of NEAR Intents does not justify the valuation. Intents is a strong bridging product and handled over $200 million of volume in about a day, per @andyyy, but it earns only about $1.5 million in annualized revenue, and valuing NEAR as a bridge is not very bullish. This may be a midcurve take. x.comÂ
Actual use of NEAR Intents, including private swaps, is a bigger positive sign for NEAR than ETF inflows. BSC News reports $5.22 million into Bitwise's NEAR ETF in the latest week; that is still small money. x.comÂ
NEAR feels like an older, inflationary tech coin that has had its time in the sun, even if the case makes some sense on paper. A post the author replies to describes selling all NEAR and rotating into Zcash and Hyperliquid because conviction in it never grew. x.comÂ
Zcash and Hyperliquid could face less selling pressure because they have newer, stronger narratives than NEAR and fewer holders waiting to sell at breakeven. Their appeal this cycle rests on narrative and hype; they look like this cycle's Ether and Solana. x.com x.com x.comÂ
NEAR could benefit from a fragmented crypto market because Intents earns fees on crosschain liquidity, with some revenue buying NEAR. Intents processed $34.2B across 37 chains; its buyback wallet holds about 1.4M NEAR. Confidential TVL reached $150.3M, up 345% in 90 days, and its 30-day volume share rose to 29%. Private execution could attract larger participants; fee-paying demand from AI agents remains unproven. These on-chain metrics support more appropriate repricing. x.com x.comÂ
Nillion and Eigen look like the next crypto-AI tokens to run after VVV and NEAR, and both are still super early. Nillion suffered a market-maker mishap, but the team resolved its issues and kept building rather than giving up on its product. Eigen, like NEAR, has pivoted and is expanding beyond restaking infrastructure. It took months for the market to notice VVV and NEAR, which are only now ripping. x.com x.comÂ
Zcash is the primary momentum trade as its activity expands through NEAR Intents: CoinDesk reports daily Zcash volume routed through Intents increased sixfold. That routing growth is the fundamental receipt, and the setup holds while Zcash activity keeps expanding through Intents. x.comÂ
NEAR Intents activity and fees keep accelerating alongside NEAR's price. September intent volume reached a new monthly high of $4.07B, while fees surpassed $7.7M and reached $55M since inception; NEAR rose 156% over the same period. x.comÂ
NEAR's buyback flywheel is turning: NEAR Intents had its biggest revenue week ever last week, and $500,000 of NEAR was bought back. x.comÂ