Axel Bitblaze
Altcoin & Memecoin Commentary
Plasma's token could follow Pump's path, where a heavily shorted unlock became a clearing event that forced shorts to buy back. Both launched on hype, sold off at once and became hated, with the unlock dump priced in for months. About 1.67B team and investor XPL tokens unlock at the September one-year cliff, and the selling may already be front-run. Unlike Pump, which used half its revenue to buy its token, XPL lacks a revenue engine buying underneath, so it has only the setup. x.com
Plasma's time has finally come: a big token unlock has happened, and the chart is coiling nicely after bottoming out. x.com
Pump.fun's PUMP token has likely bottomed, because its revenue and buybacks are out of line with a price near all-time lows. Pump.fun earns over $1 million a day in fees, has burned about $370 million of bought-back PUMP, roughly 36% of circulating supply, and says it will buy back and burn at 50% of revenue for a year. As with HYPE, the market is deciding revenue matters, and the team keeps shipping. The weakness may reflect VC unlocks or OTC selling; a coming unlock looks partly priced in. … Show more
Plasma's pumps are likely to be smothered for a while because a lot of float and supply remains in holders' hands. Many accounts promoting the product release disclose they are investors, much of the timeline seems to have been in a seed or angel round, and after the drop there are enough marginal sellers at bands all the way up. The product is reportedly decent and tokenomics may be changing for the better, but holders look keen to cut underwater positions. x.com x.com
Pump.fun's expanding trading stack and low sales multiple make PUMP's execution and market dominance look free at today's valuation. Its new bridge joins the launchpad, trading app and DEX while PUMP trades at 2.8x market-cap-to-sales. Each 1% increase in revenue would be about $8.2M annually; a 10% lift would lower that multiple to 2.6x at today's price. x.com
Pump.fun’s Kimchi and rug episode reopens the trust wound dragging on PUMP’s value. The token has remained at one-twentieth of HYPE’s market cap for over a year. Simply stopping the current communications strategy could send PUMP up 5x overnight, but repeated antics make that change look unlikely despite a strong desire to long the token. x.com
Pump.fun's PUMP token still earns about $1.6 million of revenue a day despite talk that it is dead, and that revenue should rise as on-chain activity heats up. Its daily chart shows great market structure forming, and it is back in a buy zone. The biggest issue is the lack of long-term clarity on buybacks, so it deserves a smaller premium; committing to a fixed minimum share, such as 50%, instead of year-to-year changes would make it easier to trust. x.com x.com
Pump.fun monetizes by selling SOL to buy PUMP, favoring PUMP over Solana's native token. Over the long term, the two should flip, primarily because SOL is expected to fall to $12. x.com
Pump.fun's PUMP token faces more unlock selling than its burns can absorb. $193M of tokens unlock this week, with the price already down 60% from launch. That outweighs today's $370M burn of 36% of supply and the pledge to send 50% of future revenue, about $400M a year even in a bear market, to buybacks and burns. x.com
Pump.fun's team keeps giving PUMP holders the bare minimum, now cutting buybacks after turning on holder rewards so no revenue leaks. Per @Pickle_cRypto, buybacks fell from 100% to 50% for months and are now under 40%. With seemingly about $2B in cash already, the team is signalling it does not see the token as undervalued. It has repeatedly dumped its SOL, only ships or adjusts when a competitor forces it, and has never shown an example of giving back to its community. x.com x.com
PUMP looks set to dump as token unlocks begin. A post the author replies to reports that over $6M of tokens moved to investor and team wallets within an hour. x.com
