The US dollar looks set for a multi-year bear cycle because a multipolar world needs fewer dollars. Reserve managers are diversifying, trade settles in more currencies and central banks accumulate gold instead. Against an equally weighted basket, the dollar's half-century sequence of lower secular highs is topping again on its 7-to-10-year cycle. Every major commodity bull of the past century ran alongside a falling dollar, which could also bring a second inflation wave. x.com 

The US dollar index may extend a little further to 105.8 before heading down to 93-95, following the same playbook as before Trump's election, when it was searching for macro exit liquidity and then fell after he took office. As in late 2024, when crypto rallied while the dollar climbed, bitcoin could reach $90,000-100,000 before the midterms with the DXY near 105.8. Longer term, a world moving toward stable peace would reduce safe-haven demand and weaken the dollar. x.com 

The dollar should catch a monster bid before any structural weakness, because fiat is a menu of bad choices and in a deleveraging no one reaches for euros or renminbi. If the US concludes it will not win in AI, there is a high probability the next step is to tank everything, and the dollar and US bonds would then be bid; the yen could also rise as carry trades unwind. Dollar strength comes first and leads to structural dollar weakness on the other side. x.com  x.com 

The US dollar is overvalued and weakening as Asian surplus countries stop recycling their surpluses into dollar reserves, an external drain. Without that recycling, both yields and the currency are in price discovery. Ken Rogoff concluded that Asia not recycling would mean a lower dollar against Asian surplus currencies and higher nominal rates, both now happening. Per @DrDavidKass, Ed Yardeni blames the global bond rout on the yen-carry unwind; the explanations are not mutually exclusive. x.com  … Show more

The dollar cycle has likely peaked because the Fed's next move is going to be a cut. Supply-shock demand destruction is doing the Fed's job and a strong dollar is doing the rest, so rates should fall, the dollar weaken, and duration assets, commodities and emerging markets reprice. A soon-ish end to the war should work against this view, but even if it drags on much longer, the rates curve has priced it in through the end of 2026. x.com 

The US dollar is becoming a black hole for global liquidity, driven by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance and a wave of AI-driven capital flowing back into US tech. Net long dollar positions have surged to $29.4 billion. BofA cut its EUR/USD target to 1.15 from 1.20 and now expects three more hikes this year, while Man Group sees another 5% dollar upside by year-end. This is an AI-monopoly story as much as a rate story, with capital leaving stagnant overseas markets to fund US computing. … Show more

The dollar's reserve role is eroding because, for the first time in twelve OMFIF surveys, more central banks plan to cut dollar holdings than add them. The 90 institutions, managing $10 trillion, cite political risk rather than a stronger rival. They are heading to gold, which 82% already hold and a net 30% plan to add, and to euros, yuan, pounds and kroner. The dollar is still 57% of global reserves, down from a 70% peak. x.com 

The US dollar is unlikely to break out in the short term without a catalyst. An in-line PCE print pulled down 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, the dollar index sits at major resistance at its May 2025 high, USD/JPY at 162 is a critical level for the Bank of Japan to defend, and currencies move slower than bonds. A reopened Strait of Hormuz would also help Europe and the euro recover, adding pressure; that favors short-term longs in gold and emerging markets. x.com  x.com 

The US dollar will keep dominating until another nation becomes a world power. @CryptoTeca__ notes that 98-99% of the roughly $310-315B stablecoin market is dollar-denominated. x.com 

The dollar's global role is at risk as Washington uses the threat of removal from the dollar system as a cudgel over minor issues. Treasury Secretary Bessent said any airport or company that serves Iranian airlines will be knocked out of the dollar system. If and when the dollar falters, crypto-based settlement will become a major global standard, and most investors are under-allocated to it. x.com