Merlijn The Trader
Bitcoin & Altcoin Trader, Founder of Profitz Academy
The dollar's reserve role is eroding because, for the first time in twelve OMFIF surveys, more central banks plan to cut dollar holdings than add them. The 90 institutions, managing $10 trillion, cite political risk rather than a stronger rival. They are heading to gold, which 82% already hold and a net 30% plan to add, and to euros, yuan, pounds and kroner. The dollar is still 57% of global reserves, down from a 70% peak. x.comÂ
The US dollar gains a new source of demand as stablecoins grow, because every coin must be backed by dollars and Treasuries. Senate Banking Chairman Tim Scott tied crypto to American power, framing the CLARITY Act as dollar dominance with a new engine rather than just consumer protection. x.comÂ
The US dollar looks set for a multi-year bear cycle because a multipolar world needs fewer dollars. Reserve managers are diversifying, trade settles in more currencies and central banks accumulate gold instead. Against an equally weighted basket, the dollar's half-century sequence of lower secular highs is topping again on its 7-to-10-year cycle. Every major commodity bull of the past century ran alongside a falling dollar, which could also bring a second inflation wave. x.comÂ
The dollar's longer-term prospects are very negative: 2008 showed the dollar-based system was built on quicksand, and 2026 showed the US has lost its leadership of the Western-oriented world. Both are very positive for gold. First, though, the dollar might rise on a flight to liquidity. x.com x.com x.comÂ
The US dollar is becoming a black hole for global liquidity, driven by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance and a wave of AI-driven capital flowing back into US tech. Net long dollar positions have surged to $29.4 billion. BofA cut its EUR/USD target to 1.15 from 1.20 and now expects three more hikes this year, while Man Group sees another 5% dollar upside by year-end. This is an AI-monopoly story as much as a rate story, with capital leaving stagnant overseas markets to fund US computing. … Show more
The US dollar faces devaluation risk as major holders doubt the US can pay its debt without debasing the currency. Yields have been rising, and the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, Norway's, plans deep cuts to its US Treasury holdings, signaling it sees no attractive real returns. Ray Dalio says the global monetary order is breaking down. x.comÂ
The dollar cycle has likely peaked because the Fed's next move is going to be a cut. Supply-shock demand destruction is doing the Fed's job and a strong dollar is doing the rest, so rates should fall, the dollar weaken, and duration assets, commodities and emerging markets reprice. A soon-ish end to the war should work against this view, but even if it drags on much longer, the rates curve has priced it in through the end of 2026. x.comÂ
The US dollar should strengthen over the long term as the US makes other countries reliant on its oil, a strategy that is working. The US is exporting more oil than it has in a long time. The bond move reflects rising energy prices, not a weak US economy, which is not actually that bad off. x.comÂ
The dollar, the first and last purely fiat reserve currency, is visibly failing after a 55-year unbacked experiment, with debt spiraling and yields at multi-decade highs. Earlier reserve currencies were anchored, the British pound to gold and the dollar itself until 1971. The world is choosing exits: central banks in China, India and across Asia are buying gold at a record pace, and the West will choose bitcoin. Over 20 years, both should absorb enormous monetary premium as fiat winds down. … Show more
Gold keeps getting bought because central banks are slowly shifting reserves into gold and other currencies alongside the dollar. Per IMF data, the dollar's share of reserves is near 57%, down from about 66% in 2015, not the 42% a quoted post claimed; the trend is real, though smaller. x.com x.comÂ
The US dollar is supported by hawkish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, which led traders to sharply increase bets on a rate hike as soon as September. The Dollar Index trades around 99.6 after a sharp rise in the previous session. x.comÂ
The US dollar is overvalued and weakening as Asian surplus countries stop recycling their surpluses into dollar reserves, an external drain. Without that recycling, both yields and the currency are in price discovery. Ken Rogoff concluded that Asia not recycling would mean a lower dollar against Asian surplus currencies and higher nominal rates, both now happening. Per @DrDavidKass, Ed Yardeni blames the global bond rout on the yen-carry unwind; the explanations are not mutually exclusive. x.com … Show more
