The US dollar looks more bullish than bearish because it is priced against other currencies that are hit harder by oil. Most countries' bond yields are rising, not just America's, and the US has the world's most dominant economy, which AI is accelerating relative to others. Still, trading currencies makes little sense when stocks are rising 25%+ a year. x.com 

The US dollar is becoming a black hole for global liquidity, driven by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance and a wave of AI-driven capital flowing back into US tech. Net long dollar positions have surged to $29.4 billion. BofA cut its EUR/USD target to 1.15 from 1.20 and now expects three more hikes this year, while Man Group sees another 5% dollar upside by year-end. This is an AI-monopoly story as much as a rate story, with capital leaving stagnant overseas markets to fund US computing. … Show more

The US dollar looks set for a multi-year bear cycle because a multipolar world needs fewer dollars. Reserve managers are diversifying, trade settles in more currencies and central banks accumulate gold instead. Against an equally weighted basket, the dollar's half-century sequence of lower secular highs is topping again on its 7-to-10-year cycle. Every major commodity bull of the past century ran alongside a falling dollar, which could also bring a second inflation wave. x.com 

The US dollar should keep strengthening against other currencies as Brent Johnson's dollar milkshake theory plays out, with stablecoins accelerating the move. The Turkish lira's fall to an all-time low against the dollar, down 98% since 2010 per Barchart, is an example of what other currencies will see. x.com 

The US dollar is the key long against other currencies in a secular disinflationary era, with demographic decline worsened by years of QE and overly cheap money. More currencies should hit record lows against the dollar, with non-dollar bond markets breaking and financial assets repricing toward demographic decline. Japan is entering a demographic-collapse regime where the BoJ has no power left. Dollar/yen just hit a 40-year peak of 162.68, per FinancialJuice. x.com 

The dollar's longer-term prospects are very negative: 2008 showed the dollar-based system was built on quicksand, and 2026 showed the US has lost its leadership of the Western-oriented world. Both are very positive for gold. First, though, the dollar might rise on a flight to liquidity. x.com  x.com  x.com 

The US dollar will keep dominating until another nation becomes a world power. @CryptoTeca__ notes that 98-99% of the roughly $310-315B stablecoin market is dollar-denominated. x.com 

The US dollar remains an easy long as the Fed turns hawkish, since the only way to control prices now is on the demand side, and that means rates go up. Kashkari's latest comments raise the question of whether the Fed has learned its lesson or is drifting toward Team Transitory 2.0. x.com 

The US dollar is overvalued and weakening as Asian surplus countries stop recycling their surpluses into dollar reserves, an external drain. Without that recycling, both yields and the currency are in price discovery. Ken Rogoff concluded that Asia not recycling would mean a lower dollar against Asian surplus currencies and higher nominal rates, both now happening. Per @DrDavidKass, Ed Yardeni blames the global bond rout on the yen-carry unwind; the explanations are not mutually exclusive. x.com  … Show more

The dollar should catch a monster bid before any structural weakness, because fiat is a menu of bad choices and in a deleveraging no one reaches for euros or renminbi. If the US concludes it will not win in AI, there is a high probability the next step is to tank everything, and the dollar and US bonds would then be bid; the yen could also rise as carry trades unwind. Dollar strength comes first and leads to structural dollar weakness on the other side. x.com  x.com