Bitcoin's recovery can continue because the crypto market has been little affected by uncertainty and its worst days are behind it. At this stage Bitcoin resembles gold in early 2025, with crypto recovering from its bottom and moving upward. x.com 

Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Bitcoin may need sustained demand above all to outweigh selling pressure, since even favorable catalysts have coincided with declines. BTC fell despite rate cuts, a pro-crypto president, institutional adoption and rising liquidity; it now faces rate hikes, war in Iran, inflation, AI-bubble fears, quantum risks and AI-driven crypto hacks. x.com 

A hawkish Fed surprise could briefly pressure Bitcoin, but any dip remains a chance to accumulate. Kalshi odds of a rate hike ticked up before Bitcoin weakened, and odds of a dissenting vote spiked ahead of FOMC; dissents are usually hawkish. Expect more red just after the announcement only if that signal materializes. x.com 

Bitcoin's 64% supply-in-profit reading makes $80,000 or below worth watching during the bear-to-bull transition. At the October 25 close of $80,086, it matched the 64% reading at $75,000 on September 15. Historically, below 65% marks a reasonable correction in this phase, and lower prices offer better value. A 55%-60% reading would be best, but it may never arrive. The low of this pullback from $87,000 is unknown. x.com 

Bitcoin's pre-FOMC pump looks vulnerable because such moves usually retrace afterward and sweep below prior lows. That pattern now points to roughly $78K. Earlier, liquidations into FOMC and Bitcoin's strong hold near $80K despite another $79K test had suggested the correction might be over and that it could be a bad time to be bearish. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's supply and institutional buyer base are tightening, while an AI-hacking challenge failed to breach its security. A wallet funded with 100 BTC remained untouched after months of public challenge; fewer than 900,000 BTC remain to be mined, and Fidelity bought $24.5 million for its ETF. Senator Hagerty says the US will hold its 200,000 BTC and wants to buy more. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Crypto still has room to rise because institutional adoption is accelerating and good altcoins remain underowned globally. Traditional finance is bringing assets onchain, and progress since five years ago makes it impossible to be bearish. Bitcoin looks stronger than overstretched altcoins and has shaken off severe bad news; more chop or shakeouts could come before the market moves higher. x.com 

Long-term-holder coins bought above $85K leave Bitcoin facing resistance there. Short-term-holder cost bases provide support below, and realized losses are shrinking with each dip. Bitcoin has closed above $85K on only five days since January, never more than three in a row. x.com 

A gold-trade unwind might be the real catalyst to send Bitcoin higher, rather than the AI-trade unwind many expect. The gold unwind is already happening: since late July, gold futures are down 0.7% while Bitcoin is up 26.5%. x.com  x.com