Crude oil's latest drop reflects real Gulf export capacity coming back, which erodes Iran's Hormuz leverage. Saudi Arabia resumed loadings at Yanbu, with the East-West Pipeline at 2-2.65m barrels a day and seen by Kpler rising to 3-4m soon. Saudi and UAE shuttle tankers under US escort have restored at least 60% of pre-war flows. The risk: Qatar's mediation is stuck, per Axios, and a squeezed Iran may escalate against ports, refineries, pipelines or Red Sea shipping. x.com 

Crude oil's geopolitical risk premium is bleeding out as Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline reopens. Piping crude straight to the Red Sea bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and vulnerable Gulf shipping lanes, removing a major supply bottleneck. That recovery erases the premium added after the September 10 attacks and stabilizes energy flows when macro markets needed it most. x.com 

Crude oil's safety buffer is draining at a record pace, so the next supply shock will hit a market with far less protection. The Iran war and near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz have removed over 1 billion barrels of supply, and Morgan Stanley estimates stockpiles fell about 4.8 million barrels a day from March 1 to April 25, a record. A record 400 million barrels of emergency reserves have been pledged, and inventories are near 2018 lows. Even if Hormuz reopens, restocking will add demand. … Show more

Crude oil's geopolitical risk premium is fading fast after an official US-Iran joint statement from Switzerland, backed by Qatar and Pakistan. It sets a 60-day roadmap toward a final deal, a direct Hormuz communication channel, partial release of frozen Iranian assets and eased oil and petrochemical export restrictions. Oil erased its recent gains as US futures jumped. x.com 

Crude oil looks headed lower as tanker traffic through the strait nears pre-war levels and Trump makes cheaper oil a priority. Per CNN via @Osint613, the U.S. moved 40 tankers carrying about 18 million barrels through the strait on Tuesday, a daily record since the war began and only slightly below the pre-war 20 million. Once the Iran saga is over, oil will probably be cheaper than before the war. x.com  x.com 

Oil transport and refining face renewed disruption risk, making crude oil look ready for another leg up. The Hormuz Letter relays an Iranian announcement that a tanker hit a naval mine while leaving the Strait of Hormuz; @news_9x says Ukraine vowed to destroy all Russian refineries. AP reports an official said a missile struck a passenger terminal in Riyadh. x.com 

More oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz and continued OPEC and Russian production should push crude oil lower. It has fallen from about $106 to $96 over the past month. x.com 

Crude oil is bearish if Trump leaves the war, because any flow through Hormuz beats today's zero and would add supply and lower prices outside the strait, whatever currency Iran forces it priced in. Given offsets such as the Saudi pipeline and strategic reserves, restoring 40-50% of pre-war Hormuz crude flow would be about as good as 100% for the market, at least until May. A replier argues spot prices imply an equilibrium near $150. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oil will climb and tech will get hammered, until Trump faces heat over his allies' losses and produces another we-got-a-deal headline. x.com 

Oil will crash back down now that the Strait of Hormuz is open again, and the global economy will be alright. x.com