More oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz and continued OPEC and Russian production should push crude oil lower. It has fallen from about $106 to $96 over the past month. x.com 

Oil prices should drop further as the Iran conflict winds down, which will likely make the Fed more dovish. x.com 

Crude oil's safety buffer is draining at a record pace, so the next supply shock will hit a market with far less protection. The Iran war and near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz have removed over 1 billion barrels of supply, and Morgan Stanley estimates stockpiles fell about 4.8 million barrels a day from March 1 to April 25, a record. A record 400 million barrels of emergency reserves have been pledged, and inventories are near 2018 lows. Even if Hormuz reopens, restocking will add demand. … Show more

Crude oil should fall to $60 once the Iran war is over. Oil is at $100 with troops on the ground and the Strait of Hormuz closed, but when the conflict ends rate cuts should follow and the S&P 500, now down 7% this year, should make a stronger comeback. x.com 

Crude oil looks set to fall as Persian Gulf exports recover. Per The Kobeissi Letter, Gulf crude exports topped 14 million barrels per day last week for the first time since the Iran War began on February 28, up over 210% from the March low and back to about 80% of pre-war levels, as the US military secures the Strait of Hormuz with a shipping corridor along Oman. If that holds true, the bearish oil view pays off. x.com 

Crude oil rises with every day the Strait of Hormuz stays shut, as traders on the other side give up. Reports of oil shortages, fuel rationing and shutdowns across Asia and Australia add to fear, and markets no longer believe Trump will back down. Trump must escalate militarily to reopen the strait, since Iran wants real concessions. Even the best case, boots on the ground with quick success, drives oil up short term; a drawn-out conflict is the worst case, and markets are not prepared for it. … Show more

Crude oil looks headed lower as tanker traffic through the strait nears pre-war levels and Trump makes cheaper oil a priority. Per CNN via @Osint613, the U.S. moved 40 tankers carrying about 18 million barrels through the strait on Tuesday, a daily record since the war began and only slightly below the pre-war 20 million. Once the Iran saga is over, oil will probably be cheaper than before the war. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil looks set to fall off a cliff because the chart signals that the Strait of Hormuz will soon reopen and the Iranian regime will become irrelevant. x.com 

Oil will climb and tech will get hammered, until Trump faces heat over his allies' losses and produces another we-got-a-deal headline. x.com 

Crude oil is bearish if Trump leaves the war, because any flow through Hormuz beats today's zero and would add supply and lower prices outside the strait, whatever currency Iran forces it priced in. Given offsets such as the Saudi pipeline and strategic reserves, restoring 40-50% of pre-war Hormuz crude flow would be about as good as 100% for the market, at least until May. A replier argues spot prices imply an equilibrium near $150. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com